| The score is 92*-108. You dealt yourself A-3-4-4-Q-Q
and tossed 3-4. The cut is a 2.
Pone leads an A. Do you pair it? |
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Dan Barlow:
Though pairing is probably safe, I wouldn't. I say it's safe because
if he had a pair he'd probably save them for later, believing I wouldn't
pair his lead. He's probably leading the A as a defensive
play, because he doesn't have the points to win, and wants to hold down
my pegging. However, the Q seems perfectly safe to me, so
why risk pairing? He could have A-5-5-5 in which case the
A is the obvious lead, even if opponent normally wouldn't
pair it.
DeLynn Colvert:
Yes, I pair the A. It's all or nothing at this point.
You may have a twelve-crib, and with your six hand, will be needing ten
to twelve with first count on the next deal, at best, with your opponent
in pegging range. Go for it, all or nothing.
George Rasmussen:
There is a pretty good argument to pair the A. It
would take another A to score. The cut of the 2
with the 3-4 discard suggests a minimum of seven points
in the crib. My hand contains six points only. Your opponent needs
thirteen to get out and is offering a small card (2 or
less) at beginning of play. Most players, needing thirteen to win will
hold the small pair to the end of play since it represents strong
pegging value. You are also aware of four small cards, two of which are 4s.
The presence of those might suggest that your opponent is holding an A
with middle cards (A-6-7-8 or A-5-5-9). If
your opponent is leading from a pair of As with a 2
cut, it is most likely a sign that they hold other small cards as well
and have enough to count out. In that case, the pairing of the A
will not beat you. The sixteen points in the hand will do that. My board
position is short to deal by a minimum of four holes. The small hand
(six points) and likely crib of seven points, and some pegs will cause
me to need a large hand to count first on following deal. I might need
13-15 points to win the game. Take the two and reduce the number of
points needed to win on the next deal.
Michael Schell:
If I was in decent position, there'd be no question about it, I'd
play the Q hoping to hold pone short. As it is though I'm
starting at 92* and sitting on a six point hand. I have potential in the
crib, having tossed 3-4 and seen a 2 cut,
but pone's A lead diminishes the chance of a multiple run
in the crib. I doubt most of the people I play would lead an A
from A-A here except for defense (they'd probably hang
onto it hoping to peg three or four points with it on a go). So
I'm guessing that my opponent either has the game won, or else doesn't
have a second A. At any rate it's a chance I feel I have
to take, given my own weak position. I'm pairing the A.
Phyllis Schmidt:
Do I pair the A? No. I'm too far behind to give up a
possible six points here.
Peter Setian:
I would stay away from pairing this soon. Pone needing twelve points
to win the game weighs heavy, and I'm hopeful for a twelve crib to get
me to within ten points of home. If the pone has a 3 and
another low card, chances are the game will be lost anyway. Also,
playing a Q for 11 is especially good when two 4s
are known.
HALSCRIB:
I predict that at the last deal both players will be at 118. Because
of the close nature of the game, my strategy is optimal, which
strikes a balance between offense and defense.
If I pair the A, I expect to gain about 3¾
pegs to opponent's 3¼ pegs on
average, for a net gain of about ½
peg. However, if I play a Q, I'll gain about 2½
pegs to opponent's ¾ peg, on
average. On this basis, I'll make the optimal play of the Q.
Incidentally I concur with the 3-4 discard only if
there is no 3-Q of the same suit available. Otherwise,
the possibility of a crib flush tips the balance in favor of tossing 3-Q.
I also think A-4-4-Q is a better defensive pegging hand
than A-4-Q-Q, should defense seem appropriate after the
cut.
Panelists
Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage
Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage
strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and
can be seen on the ACC Web site.
He also provides strategy tips at MSN
Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The
Cribbage Bookstore.
DeLynn Colvert (1931–2019) is the highest rated tournament player in the history of organized cribbage. He was a five-time National Champion, author of Play
Winning Cribbage, longtime editor of the monthly magazine Cribbage World,
and the ACC's only Life Master - Seven Stars. He also directed two annual tournaments in Missoula, MT, served as the ACC's President, and was one of the game's most affable emissaries. It's scarcely an exaggeration to say that Colvert's career defines modern cribbage.
George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship,
held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available
on the ACC Web site.
Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.
Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been
playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star,
a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30
tournaments a year.
Peter Setian has played cribbage for over three decades, and has
been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won
seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays
in about 12-16 tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of
Champions and the annual Grand National.
HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer
cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis
version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts
have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB
home page. |
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