You're dealer leading 94*-86. You dealt yourself 3-5-7-9-10-10. What do you toss?

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November 2008 problem:

At 64-54* you kept 3 8 10 J, tossing A J. You then cut the 3. The play starts: 3  A  8  K  4 (26-1)    ? What do you lead at dealer’s last card?

Dan Barlow:

Well, he's as likely to have been dealt a 10 as a J. If he was dealt both, he probably would have kept both rather than keep the K. There's some chance he had 9-10-J-K and decided to toss himself 9-10 rather than A-4, so I will play the 10.

John Chambers:

In this situation, I would play the 10.

Your opponent is more likely to have a Q or a J than a 10. More than likely, I would say, he has a Q, as he would keep cards that are closer together.

DeLynn Colvert:

With two Js played, I simply play the odds and lead a J.

George Rasmussen:

Play the numbers. As pone I retained the flush, which included a J, and discarded A-J to dealer crib. So I know the location of two Js. I wouldn't let the dealer's K sway me towards the lead of the 10 for those reasons.

Michael Schell:

I started the deal +4 to dealer's -16. If I falter a little, dealer's in great shape even with anything but a very poor hand and crib. Offense is the priority, and if my opponent is competent, he knows that too.

Now if dealer was dealt A-4-10-J-K and a miscellaneous sixth card, he's more likely to have kept J-K than 10-K. On the other hand, two Js are already accounted for, whereas I've only seen one 10. Which way should I go? Well there's a very good reason why the J is a superior play against a competent opponent. Consider dealer's situation with the play at:

³  _A  ⁸  _?

Assume further that dealer doesn't want to play his 4, since in the event he didn't (perhaps he fears having it paired given my first two cards). Now, if dealer was holding 4-10-K at this point, he would not have dropped the 10, since this would risk giving up a 31-5 to a 9. He would play the K instead. However if dealer was holding 4-J-K, he might have played any of the three cards plausibly, but a savvy opponent hoping to hold down my scoring would dump the more vulnerable J before he'd play the K.

I consider it much more likely that dealer is lurking with 10 than a J, so I'm leading my J and hoping for a pair and last card with my 10.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I'll play the 10. I think if he had a J he would have kept it with the K.

Peter Setian:

Truthfully, my habitual play would probably still continue (against the exposed K) by leading the 10. Though after analyzing the situation, I can see the J is a better lead, with two exposed versus one 10. The key: if the dealer initially had both 10-J, the only discard that would make the dealer keep the J and discard the 10, is 8-10 (otherwise they'd toss the K, or A-4 and keep a run, etc.).

HALSCRIB:

C'mon humans, you should have been more aggressive and led the J here! Also, once the play started:

³  _A  ^?

you'd have been a lot better off playing the J next. Dealer is unlikely to have dumped an A from a pair on your 3 lead, so he can only score on a J reply if he too has a J). Anyway, we're where we are, and looking at my dynamically-adjusted dealer hand frequencies, I'm playing my J at his unknown card.

Dealer's last card	Frequency
6	773
7	851
9	219
10	3,056
J	2,808
Q	7,956
K	5,190

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written six books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

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