hide answers

Dan Barlow:

I'm not particularly interested in giving the dealer A-2, 6-7 or Q-Q — not when the most I can hold is two points. So I keep 2-6-7-Q. What's the problem?

DeLynn Colvert:

Early in game with no apparent advantage to either player. I keep 2-6-7-Q, leading the 2! I don't want my opponent to score a sixteen crib at this point.

George Rasmussen:

Temptation exists to retain A-2-6-7 since cut of 6-7-8 scores eight or nine points respectively and these cards may offer some pegging potential. On second thought, I'm not in serious trouble at this point in the game. Given that assessment, I cannot afford to retain two points and discard two points. Discard the A-Q and play 2-6-7-Q.

Michael Schell:

At this score I'm +5 and dealer is -10. That's the good news. The bad news is that I'm looking at a poor hand which will cause me to fall out of position if I don't improve it. Although 2-6-7-Q and 6-7-Q-Q look like plausible plays here, I feel compelled to keep A-2-6-7, tossing Q-Q. This gives up 5.8 points in the crib — one more than average and 1½ more than tossing A-Q — but it gets the highest average hand of the lot and has real pegging potential to boot. If I get a bad cut, I can lead the 7 hoping to score off a 7 or 8 reply. If I get a good cut I can play defense instead and lead a low card. Since dealer is -10 he's unlikely to be able to jump into position this deal, even if I toss him a pair of Qs.

Keep:	Toss:		Average   hand:		Opponent's crib:			Expected    average:
					Static	Delta	Dynamic
A-2-6-7	Q-Q		4.78		5.8	+0.01	5.81	-1.03
2-6-7-Q	A-Q		4.09		4.3	+0.02	4.32	-0.23
6-7-Q-Q	A-2		3.78		5.1	+0.09	5.19	-1.41

Phyllis Schmidt:

I would take a chance and throw the Q-Q. Almost any card but a face card would help my hand.

Peter Setian:

I would keep 2-6-7-Q. The little extra "speculation" that the A would add to the hand is not worth keeping when discarding the pair of Qs. No desperate measures are needed in this game position either.

HALSCRIB:

Three candidate hands are worth considering:

Keep:	Toss:		Average   hand:	Opponent's  crib:	Expected   average:	Maximum:		Average pegging:     Net (Pone/Dealer)
						Hand	Crib
A-2-6-7	Q-Q		4.78	5.92	-1.14	9	22	-1.04 (1.61/2.65)
2-6-7-Q	A-Q		4.09	4.26	-0.17	7	14	-1.07 (1.41/2.48)
6-7-Q-Q	A-2		3.78	4.87	-1.09	9	16	-1.40 (1.30/2.70)

A-2-6-7 is clearly best on offense, getting the highest average hand, and pegging the most points. 2-6-7-Q is the best defensive option of the three, giving up the fewest points in the crib and holding dealer's pegging to a minimum. It's also the best balanced of the three, as evidenced by having the best expected average (the net of expected hand value minus expected crib value). So it's a question of priorities. Using 26-theory, I project that I will win as pone with 125 points, with my opponent at 112. Granted, with a lousy cut and no pegging, I'll find myself a couple holes short. But it's too early in the game to go for broke with A-2-6-7. Instead I'll keep the more prudent 2-6-7-Q.

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.