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Dan Barlow:

I keep 5-6-7-7, guaranteed to improve on any cut. I'll settle for one 5 in the crib, as 24 cuts will leave me with a measly six points if I save 2-6-7-7. True, most of those 24 cuts will go nicely with a pair of 5s in the crib, but whenever I toss myself 5-5, my crib turns out to be 5-5-2-7, with a 4 cut.

DeLynn Colvert:

I always discard the 5s to my crib. The 2 in the hand is an "out" card in case the pegging gets sticky. And you can still hit a sixteen hand with the right card, plus the enormous advantages of a huge crib with two 5s!

George Rasmussen:

Retain 5-6-7-7, discard 2-5 to own crib, and match suits if possible. At one time, I would have advised discarding 5-5 from this hand. The 5-5 discard averages 8.821 to own crib. Because of the high average value of the 5-5 discard and a mere two-point sacrifice in the hand, it would seem that the combined values would exceed the crib/hand values of the 2-5 choice. I have simulated several hundred hands with random deal to opponent — and appropriate discarding to crib dependent on hand composition — and in no case has the 5-5 emerged the leader. In the most recent simulation of 100 hands, the 5-5 discard to the crib scored an average hand of 8.42 and an average crib of 8.82 for a combined total of 17.24. The 2-5 discard resulted in average hand of 11.62 and average crib of 5.71 for combined total of 17.33. In this case, the strength of the double run for eight and a guaranteed two to the crib offsets the higher value of the 5-5 to crib. Have also used this example in class-room with ten boards in use and attained the same results. Might have had a different response if the cards had been 2-5-5-6-6-7. Let's try that one sometime!

Michael Schell:

2-6-7-7 gets a slightly higher expected average than 5-6-7-7. But hands with a 5 or a magic eleven in them typically peg about ½ point better than hands that don't. And besides, I always seem to get a 4 cut when I toss 5-5 from hands like this. So I'm keeping 5-6-7-7. Here are the numbers:

Keep  Toss    Average   hand Own crib:    Expected    average   Static    Delta   Dynamic  2-6-7-7     5-5 8.52 8.79 -0.11 8.68 17.20 5-5-6-7 2-7 12.17 3.81 -0.29 3.52 15.69 5-6-7-7 2-5 11.70 5.45 -0.04 5.41 17.11

Keep  Toss      Pegging (Schempp):     Pegging (Mueller): Net (pone/dealer) Net (pone/dealer) 2-6-7-7     5-5 +1.9 (1.8/3.6) +1.3 (1.6/2.9) 5-5-6-7 2-7 +3.2 (2.3/5.6) +2.7  (1.3/4.0) 5-6-7-7 2-5 +2.0 (2.4/4.5) +2.2 (1.5/3.7)

If I needed more defense, I'd keep 2-6-7-7 to give me an out card on a 6 or 8 lead. But at this score I'm +4 while pone is -7, and that calls for cautious offense, at least until I see the cut.

Phyllis Schmidt:

Keep 2-6-6-7. It's your best chance to catch up and get into a better position.

Peter Setian:

I would throw the 5-5. First, I think this discard optimizes both hand and crib combined. Second, given the nice cards and board position, the dealer should clearly stay away from any pegging exchanges. Keeping the 2-6-7-7 will guard against being "stuck" on a 6 lead.

HALSCRIB:

I may be wrong about this, but I don't think 2-6-7-7 is that much better on defense. If pone has mid-cards, you're going to have to mix it up with her no matter what you keep — the 2 only forestalls it for one card. Still, you do have a little more flexibility than you would with 5-5-6-7 or 5-6-7-7, and since 5-5 does so well in the crib, 2-6-7-7 is my choice. Note that with average scoring, I expect to win with two holes to spare on the last deal while my opponent stalls at 116 as pone. So to find the best toss I use the defensive formula of:

expected average - opponent's pegging = defensive value

Keep	Toss		Defensive value	Average   hand	Own  crib	Expected   average	Average pegging:     Net (Pone/Dealer)
2-6-7-7	5-5		15.81	8.52	8.86	17.38	+1.33 (1.57/2.89)
5-5-6-7	2-7		14.38	12.17	3.47	15.64	+2.70 (1.26/3.96)
5-6-7-7	2-5		15.62	11.70	5.42	17.12	+2.15 (1.50/3.65)

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.