The score is 107-97*. You were dealt 2 3 6 8 9 J. You kept 2 3 6 9, and cut the K. The pegging started: 3  A  ? What's your play?

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Dan Barlow:

Certainly dealer is not trying to lure me into a run just so he can score a run of his own. He should be trying desperately to keep my pegging down. Presumably he had no choice but to offer a run, holding a hand such as A-2-2-3, A-3-4-5, A-2-3-4 or A-A-2-3. If he has one of these hands, and I play the 2 here, I'm unlikely to peg enough to go out this hand. And if he's holding a good hand (for example, A-2-2-3 or A 2 3 4), letting him score a run could help him win if his crib happens to be 6-7-8-J. So, 6 or 9? If he has an A and a 5, his hand probably isn't that great. I'm more worried about hands with an A and a 2. Even though he's more likely to have been dealt a 5 than a 2, I think he'd have tossed a 5 into his crib. I'm playing the 6, preventing him from scoring 15-2 with a deuce.

DeLynn Colvert:

I play the 2 for a run of three. Even if opponent plays 4 for a run of four, you should be able to win next hand by pegging out.

George Rasmussen:

Play the 2 for a run of three and a count of 6. With the cut of the K, your hand will score eight points. You need the three provided by the run in case you need to peg out the following hand. The three-card run is a greater advantage to you in this case than the four-card run might be to the dealer. It's important in such a situation to play your position first, dealer's position second. This no time for defense on your part. An eight-point hand with no pegs will leave six holes to peg as dealer on the next round. Reduce that number to three pegs and you have substantially increased your chances of winning. Take the run!

Michael Schell:

If I refuse the run, I might end up pegging nothing and landing at 115*, or I might peg a point or two later and get to 116* or 117*. Assuming my opponent doesn't go out first (which seems quite unlikely given my toss and the cut), I might be able to win by pegging out next deal, but will probably just have to hope she falls short with her hand count. This is what I call winning on the back end (i.e., by counting your hand/crib as dealer).

Alternatively I can take the run, which gets me to at least 118*, where I'm about 50%-50% to peg out as dealer. I'll guess that this adds 30-35% to my forward winning chances — a significant gain. What does it cost me? Dealer could retaliate with a 4 for four points, or could score two or three points with several other cards. But I can then break with my 6 or 9 to stanch the bleeding. Let's give dealer an additional one or two pegs for last card and all, making the worst-case scenario six pegs — 2 more than average. Dealer is starting at 97*, so using my rule of thumb (7% per point when dealer is near the positional hole), I'll estimate that this would decrease my back-end winning chances by 19%. And that's only if dealer does have a 4. Seems well worth the risk to me. I'm taking the run!

Phyllis Schmidt:

Play the 9, making the count 13. If he has a 2, I'll match it. And if not, I get out of being trapped for too may runs.

Peter Setian:

I would play the 2 for the three-card run. Chances become favorable when I can deal from three pegs out or less on the next hand. Any extra pegs the current dealer gets from the run shouldn't put him or her out unless a good hand is combined with a crib toss of Q-x, 5-x or 5-5. But even in these situations, defensive pegging would create only a slim chance at best, when you're dealing from about 5-6 pegs out, and the pone needs about 2-3 pegs.

HALSCRIB:

Before the cut I predict that on the last hand I'll be dealing from 117* and pone would be at 113. Thus I agree with the keep of 2 3 6 9 because it offers more offensive pegging potential than the defensive 2-3-9-J and is consistent with a strategy of pegging out for the win. After the K cut I estimate pone will get to about 112 with normal pegging. That's close enough to be within counting range of home next deal, but not close enough to peg out, so I have a little leeway here. I'll play the 2 and take the three holes.

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.