hide answers

Dan Barlow:

I keep A-4-7-Q. I'm trying to avoid a run, and this gives me a safe variety of possible plays in the early stages of pegging. In my dreams, pone leads a Q, I pair, he triples, and I end up pegging out. I like having the 4-7, as it allows me to score 31-2 if pone has faces and 5s. Not that I need the two points, but 31 prevents pone from pegging with his next card.

DeLynn Colvert:

I keep the A-6-7-8. If opponent leads a 7 or 8, I should peg five holes easily.

George Rasmussen:

I keep the A-6-7-8. With five pegs to go and the non-dealer at hole 107, I can peg out if pone is holding middle cards, or a combination of face cards with a 5. That far out, pone will have to hold cards of good score or good scoring potential. With a middle card lead, I would take the 15-2 and runs as they develop after that. On a ten-card lead, I'd try to trap the 5 at the end of the play by dropping the 8 on the opening lead and retaining the 6-7. Most players will then make the count 28 rather than 23. If they do make the count 23 by dropping the 5, play the 7 for 30 and close the count at 31. If your opponent leads a small card, you need to find a way to dump the A. That's the only card in the hand that might hurt you at the end. On a 4 lead, if the starter card is not an A, 4 or x, make the count 5. It is likely in this case that two points for a 15 will not be enough for your opponent to win. Some would argue to hold the 6-7-8-Q and ditch the two small cards. I'll let somebody else explain that one.

Michael Schell:

This is a tough choice. A-4-7-Q spreads out the cards nicely, and contains two magic elevens. The 6-8 in the crib means I'm guaranteed enough points to go out on any cut but a 2. This looks better to me than A-4-6-Q, which eliminates the shortfall on a 2 cut, but contains too many vulnerable cards for my taste (the A could be tripled or trapped into an A-2-3 run with the count above 27, and the 4 or 6 could get trapped into a 15-6 at the end of the play). An alternative is 4-6-7-8, which retains two 5-traps and has enough points to go out regardless of the cut, but again the 4 and 6 are probably more of a vulnerability than the A and 4 in A-4-7-Q, and you should ordinarily be planning to play defense at this score. Another reasonable option is 4-7-8-Q, rock solid on defense, but susceptible to a 2, 10 or K cut (though a 2 fails only if pone tosses x-x).

The more I look at this, though, the more I think the normal A-6-7-8 is probably best of all. It defends well against low cards and 5/x hands, and will probably peg out against mid-cards or lo/mid hands.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I prefer to keep A-4-6-Q. I'll take pegs if I feel I can do so without giving up too may holes. Else I'll try to hold back pone, and hope he doesn't have fourteen points.

Peter Setian:

I would definitely keep 4-7-Q, along with either the A or 6. The first instinct is to keep A-4-7-Q. This almost guarantees you will have enough to go out with the crib if necessary. I could also see keeping 4-6-7-Q. This may give a little less likelihood of pegging trouble, but more of a risk of leaving yourself short, for a possible pegging dual the next hand.

HALSCRIB:

Pone is starting out fourteen holes back, and I have several possible keeps that look reasonably safe from a defensive standpoint. I'm only guaranteed one point in the pegging, and I don't expect to peg aggressively (though I'll grab a good opportunity to peg out if I see one), so my first priority is to make damn sure I'll have at least four points between hand and crib after the cut. That eliminates A-4-7-Q, 4-7-8-Q and a couple other options that fail to improve on a bad cut. Of the remaining candidates, I estimate that A-4-6-Q will give up the fewest points on average, doing a little better defensively than A-4-8-Q and A-4-7-8, and substantially better than A-6-7-8, 4-6-7-8, 6-7-8-Q and the rest. Since my pegging priority is defense, I'll ignore offensive pegging potential and just go with A-4-6-Q. If opponent were to lead a 3, for example, I would play my A.

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.