The score is 69*-84. You deal yourself A 2 4 5 10 J. What do you keep? Suppose you keep A-4-10-J, and pone cuts the Q and leads a 4. Do you pair it?

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Dan Barlow:

I would save A-4-10-J.

Why is pone leading a 4? A defensive play, because he has a good hand and wants to slow me down for the skunk? Or an offensive play, holding another 4 or an A? He's more likely to have an A than another 4, and since I can't prevent both offensive plays, I pair, playing my 4 confidently as if I have a pair of them myself. If he was leading from A-4, he may even give me a 10 or a J to pair now. Five holes pegged, a decent hand and crib...thanks to my bold play, I just may pull this game out!

John Chambers:

This is a defensive situation. You know your opponent will probably get on Fourth Street. It's a matter of how far down on Fourth Street he gets. You can have no control over how much he gets in his hand. But you do have a little control over the pegging. If you keep him from getting too far on Fourth you will at least have a chance to win the game. With your hand, a good crib and then a decent hand as the non-dealer, you can get on Fourth Street. If you hold down his pegging you may get to count your three hands as the dealer on Fourth Street. If you try pegging, it will only help your opponent get better position on Fourth Street. Realizing this, you would not pair and you would not play the J (the most likely kept tenth card). You would play the 10.

DeLynn Colvert:

I hold A-4-5-J. I'm a notoriously aggressive type, so on a 4 lead, I'll pair away.

George Rasmussen:

Although it appears on the surface that I ought to pair the 4, two points for me and a potential six for the pone could decide the game. Taking two improves my position only slightly. Six for pone advances those pegs to hole 90 with the hand still to score. Don't pair when this is the situation! If pone were at 74, I would be willing to chance the six points in order to gain two points for the pair. Let board position make your decision.

Michael Schell:

A-2-4-5-10-J as dealer is an interesting case. A-4-10-J and 2-5-10-J come out about the same in the numbers, and even A-2-4-10 is a good try, since hands with a 3/1 distribution of low and high cards usually peg much better for dealer than 2/2 hands like A-4-x-x and 2-5-x-x.

Keep  Toss    Average   hand Own crib:    Expected    average   Static    Delta   Dynamic  A-2-4-10     5-J 4.52 7.00 +0.02 7.02 11.54 A-4-10-J 2-5 6.67 5.46 +0.02 5.47 12.14 2-5-10-J A-4 6.67 5.43   0.00 5.43 12.10

Keep  Toss      Pegging (Schempp):     Pegging (Mueller): Net (pone/dealer) Net (pone/dealer) A-2-4-10     5-J +1.5 (2.0/3.5) +1.6 (1.5/3.1) A-4-10-J 2-5 +1.0 (2.3/3.4) +0.7  (1.7/2.4) 2-5-10-J A-4 +1.2 (2.0/3.2) +0.8 (1.9/2.7)

A-4-10-J is probably what I'd come up with over the board, but any of these hands would be a good choice.

Now to the pegging. Although I started the deal -1 to pone's +24, the cut gives me a nine point hand (one more than average), and higher than average expectations in the crib. Taking this into account, I'm effectively somewhere near +1 (which would make pone -2). This calls for cautious offense. Taking a naked pair of pone's lead is an aggressive play, and not one that's generally valid for balanced play, since there's no way no retaliate if you're tripled. And giving up six soft points could get pone into Fourth Street position even with a mediocre hand. Although my own position is not great, I'm going to drop the 10 instead and hope that safer pegging opportunities come my way later.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I'll keep A-4-10-J, since I prefer 2-5 to A-4 in my crib. I wouldn't pair the 4 lead, but would try to hold opponent to a minimum. Play the 10 instead.

Peter Setian:

I would throw A-4 and keep 2-5-10-J, mainly because the A-4 is more likely to be paired in the crib than 2-5. (How often does the pone throw a 5?) Also, 2-5-10-J is probably a better hold for staying out of pegging trouble.

But if I held A-4-10-J with the Q cut, I would tend not to pair the 4 lead. Both players are in the same "aggressive" position, but the pone has "first shot". So my primary obligation would be to hold the pone back so long as I have a half way decent hand (and crib). Something like a 7 cut would be a different story.

HALSCRIB:

Before the deal I estimate that opponent will reach the stinkhole as dealer three deals hence, and will therefore win by pegging. If I can slow her down though, I could well win with only average cards. Thus I'm going to play off, and hope that my cards hold up their end of the bargain. I agree with the keep of A-4-10-J. It averages the same as 2-5-10-J between hand and crib, and I think it's a trifle safer in the pegging. A-2-4-10 would be good at a different score, but its advantage over the other hands is in its offensive pegging potential. Since I don't play to peg aggressively, its appeal is diminished in this position. Here are my numbers, using the defensive formula of:

defensive value = expected average - opponent's pegging

Keep	Toss		Defensive value	Average   hand	Own  crib	Expected   average	Average pegging:     Net (Pone/Dealer)
A-2-4-10	5-J		9.87	4.52	6.83	11.35	+1.63 (1.48/3.11)
A-4-10-J	2-5		10.38	6.67	5.38	12.05	+0.74 (1.67/2.41)
2-5-10-J	A-4		10.00	6.67	5.20	11.87	+0.83 (1.87/2.70)

Of course I'll drop my 10 on pone's 4 lead, particularly after the favorable cut.

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.