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Dan Barlow:

What disaster can befall me if I play each card?

^A  _J  ⁸  _J  ^A (30-1)    ₆  ⁴  _5 (15-6)

^A  _J  ⁶  _J  ^A (28-1)    ₉  ⁸  _10 (27-4)

^A  _J  ^A  _3 (15-2)  ⁶  _J (31-2)    ⁸  _8 (16-3)

I think the A is safest. Dealer pegs more (in my examples), but only because he has a bad hand.  It's when dealer has a decent hand that we don't want to give him crucial extras.

John Chambers:

The starter is a 10 and your opponent plays a J after you led an A. So potentially he could have cards from 8 through K, i.e. 8-9-10-J, 9-10-J-Q or 10-J-Q-K. You can't give him a chance for a pair so you wouldn't play the 8. You would play the 6, getting the count over 15. This gives you an 8 and an A to balk his pegging with.

DeLynn Colvert:

I play an 8, since the 8 misses the crib and his lead. If the count goes to 29, your A should be safe at 30 since dealer did not pair the first A playing on.

George Rasmussen:

The game is up for grabs and dealer is slightly short. Your A lead has drawn a J response. That might ring some bells. In what kind of hands does the dealer retain a J? Remember in many cases, the dealer will toss the J to the crib in combinations such as J-Q, 10-J, J-J, J-K and 5-J. Dealer may be playing you for an amateur thinking you would lead the A from three ten-cards, and one of those just might be the J. The presence of the J in dealer's hand in most cases means dealer has other cards that look like a J (double run of face cards, three ten-pointers with a 5, or 6-9-10-J). Play the 8 on the count of eleven for 19. If dealer plays the likely ten-pointer for 29, your A is reasonably safe in this case for the go at 30. Your remaining card is the 6. In a rare hand, the 6 could be vulnerable to a 4-5 trap. But the presence of the J in the dealer hand cuts down this possibility immensely. If you would like additional comments as to why this is so, email me.

Michael Schell:

General principle says play the 6 next. It's covered by the 8, and playing it now gets a "problem" card out of the way early (giving up a 15-6 at the end to 4-5-6-J is a nasty possibility). Tactically, though, the 8 has its advantages too, performing better against 2-3-x-x, 2-x-x-x, 3-x-x-x and 9-10-J-J. What's harder to see is that playing the second A carries the same objective risk as the alternatives, if you assume that dealer would have paired your A lead if he could (a safe assumption against a competent player). Furthermore, if dealer can take a 15-2 with a 3 (of which only three are available, remember?) it augurs well for a low-scoring crib, whereas if he can peg on your 6 or 8 he might still have tossed himself low cards to go with your 3-Q. Put it all together and the A seems the right play to me.

Phyllis Schmidt:

Play the 6, getting the count above 15. This prevents the extra shot at two points, and keeps me from getting left with 6-8 at the end.

Peter Setian:

In this totally defensive position, any second card play seems as safe as the other. But considering the dealer's crib thus far is 3-Q with the 10 cut, I would rather play the second A for a count of 12. If dealer has a 3 for the15-2, fine. I'll respond with the 8, expecting that the crib will be practically dead, unless something like a pair of 5s were tossed. Better this way than to have a mid-card paired now and find low cards in the crib later.

HALSCRIB:

I agree with playing defense and leading an A. I will continue with the second A, exposing an immediate risk of 15-2. If dealer has an A, mine will probably be paired regardless. Playing it now avoids having it trapped later in restriction (i.e., when the count is high and it's my only legal play). Having my 6-8 trapped into a run is less likely given her play of the J.

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.