At 111*-109 you deal yourself 2 5 6 7 10 K. What do you discard? Suppose pone cuts the 5 and leads the J. What do you play?

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Dan Barlow:

I'm worried about the 2 and the 5, but if I toss them both, the cut will be an A and I'll have two points total. Happens every time. So I toss 5-10, expecting at least four in my crib. I play the 6 on the J. Anything's possible, but if he didn't have a dozen to begin with, I doubt he's getting out. Thanks to the cut, I am.

John Chambers:

In this particular position I would keep the 2-5-6-7. I have to realize that if I had kept one of the tenth cards instead of the 2, there would be less opportunity to improve my hand. And either discard probably won't get you much in the crib. In this situation you'll have to depend on your hand to optimize your points. With the 10-K discard there are five cards which will get you at least ten points, compared to only three with the other discard. If a 5 is cut and your opponent's initial play was a J, then play the 6. Your opponent may not have a 5, but you have to play him for one. You don't want to give him two points he may need.

DeLynn Colvert:

I'll keep 2-5-6-7. 10-K in my own crib is not nice, but I shouldn't need to score anyway.

As for the pegging, I always play a 6 on a face lead when playing defense.

George Rasmussen:

Pone needs twelve points to win. The 2 has no value in this case and is the only small card in the dealer hand. Sooner or later it could pose a serious risk in the pegging game. Retain 5-6-7-K with 2-10 to the crib. This averages more in your crib than 10-K (see here), and eliminates several possible pegging scenarios where your deuce gets trapped by pone.

The lead of the J with a 5 on the deck should make you real nervous. Don't take that 15 like so many do. Make the count 16. You'll likely be able to close the count at 31 with the play of the 5. It is very important in this situation to eliminate pegging opportunities for pone. Two pegs could very well give pone the win. If your opponent wins, let it be by the score of the hand. Don't allow pegs to determine the outcome.

Michael Schell:

I'd keep the natural 5-6-7-K. It's a reasonably safe pegging hand offering a comfortable reply to any opening lead. 2-6-7-K might be a tad safer: if the K gets forced out on a mid-card lead, the 2-6-7 gives you a better spaced "leave" than 5-6-7. But a 2 is more vulnerable to being trapped into a pair, run or triple as the count approaches 31. And 2-6-7-K returns points less between hand and crib, increasing the risk that I'll fall short on a bad cut (like an A, 4 or 9). With me and pone still a ways from home, I feel more comfortable with 5-6-7-K, knowing that I'll have enough to go out this deal under almost any scenario.

Keep

Toss

Average   hand

Own crib:

Expected    average

Pegging (Schempp):

Pegging (Mueller):

Static

Delta

Dynamic

Net

(pone/dealer)

Net

(pone/dealer)

2-5-6-7

10-K

8.46

2.84

-0.07

2.77

11.12

+2.0

(2.4/4.4)

+2.2

(1.5/3.7)

2-6-7-K

5-10

4.02

6.66

-0.04

6.62

10.64

+2.0

(1.6/3.6)

+1.6

(1.4/3.0)

5-6-7-K

2-10

7.85

3.55

-0.02

3.53

11.38

+2.0

(2.2/4.1)

+2.2

(1.6/3.7)

The J lead on a 5 cut is not encouraging. I have no choice but to play the 6. I'm dead against 4-5-6-J, but I'm not dead against hands like 5-6-10-J, 4-5-J-Q and 5-7-J-Q unless I give up two careless points by dangling my 5. Note that the cut puts me out if I live to count my hand, so there's no need for me to take pegging points.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I would discard 2-10, leaving the K as an out card. On the J lead, I'd play the 7, the card pone is least likely to have kept with the J. I'll stay away and hope he doesn't have twelve points.

Peter Setian:

I'd say I'm close enough to throw 5-10 into my crib to keep the most variety for defensive pegging. At most I'm really sacrificing only one point (any middle card cut will likely give me enough anyway). On a J lead, I'd play the 6. Seems like any play on the J could help an unusual hand.

HALSCRIB:

5-6-7-10 and 5-6-7-K are the two best offensive and defensive pegging hands. But in this position an unfavorable cut, crib and pegging may result in my getting stuck at 117 with my opponent at 119*. So I would keep 2-5-6-7, which is guaranteed to improve after any cut. That way if there is another deal, the worst that can happen is that I get stuck at 119.

On pone's J lead I would reply with the 6, as it reduces pone's pegging by about ¼ point on average over the 5 or 7.

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.