| You're pone at 112-109*. You're dealt 2-4-5-5-8-Q
with no flush possibility. What do you keep? |
hide answers
Dan Barlow:
At last a question we all may agree on. More of the possible cuts will
turn 4-5-5-Q into enough points to win without pegging. If
you save 4-5-5-Q and the cut happens to be a 2
or an 8, and you don't peg three holes, don't kick
yourself. The right play sometimes backfires. If it didn't, the game would
be boring.
John Chambers:
In this situation, being the non-dealer, I would keep the
4-5-5-Q. You need nine points and you have six in your hand. As
far a cut is concerned, not only will the four tenth cards put you out,
but also the A, 3, 4,
5 and 6. You will have almost a 70% chance to get
the cut card to put you out.
DeLynn Colvert:
I keep 2-5-5-8. Any ten-card wins the game, in addition
to a 2, 5 or 8. A 3
or 7 gets me within one, and in that event, hopefully
dealer won't be able to guess the balance of my hand from my lead.
George Rasmussen:
You will not likely get another chance to win this game with the dealer
at hole 109*. Go with the card retention that offers most opportunities to
score nine points or more: 4-5-5-Q. A starter card of
A, 3, 5, 6,
10, J, Q or K
wins game. A cut of 4 produces eight points and a need to
peg one. Count the cards that will score sufficient points to win and go
with the numbers. It's certainly no time for playing hunches!
Michael Schell:
I think this is a straightforward keep of 4-5-5-Q.
Clearly I'll keep six points somehow, and will win on a 5
or ten-card cut. 4-5-5-Q additionally wins on an A,
3 or 6 cut, and gets eight points on a
4 cut. 2-5-5-8 is worth calculating over the
board, but it only adds 2 and 8 to the
winning cuts, though it does gets eight on a 3 or 8
cut. I see no reason to think that 2-5-5-8 will peg better
in this position, so I would stick with the natural 4-5-5-Q.
Phyllis Schmidt:
I would keep 4-5-5-Q. This has more possibilities for
the twelve needed to win.
Peter Setian:
No matter which way you keep the six points, we know ten-cards and
5 cuts will give you enough. I would go with the first
instincts and keep 4-5-5-Q as opposed to 2-5-5-8.
When comparing and counting additional cut cards, six more cut cards give
your hand ten points or more with the 4-Q hand (and only
five fewer cut cards give you eight points). I don't think any other hand
has enough of a pegging advantage to overcome the better cutting odds for
4-5-5-Q.
HALSCRIB:
There are four keeps that guarantee six points regardless of the
starter. It is not certain that dealer will go out if we don't. With this
in mind, I will keep the hand that on average will maximize the
possibility of going out on this deal. That is 4-5-5-Q,
which gives me the best chance of cutting myself out, as must of the
humans pointed out.
Here are average pegging numbers for each of the keeps:
| Keep |
Toss |
|
Pegging: |
 |
Net |
(pone/dealer) |
| 2-5-5-8 |
4-Q |
|
-1.2 |
(1.2/3.4) |
| 2-5-5-Q |
4-8 |
|
-1.9 |
(1.2/3.1) |
| 4-5-5-Q |
2-8 |
|
-1.8 |
(1.4/3.2) |
| 5-5-8-Q |
2-4 |
|
-2.1 |
(1.1/3.2) |
Note that 4-5-5-Q also has the best offensive expected
pegging value. If, for example, an 8 is cut, I will lead
the Q, expecting to lose about 50% and win 25% of the time
on this deal (the remaining 25% of the time, both dealer and myself will
fall short and there will be an additional deal). On a starter that does
not help my discards into the crib, the lose expectation is about 33%. On
a winning cut such as a 3, I will lead the 4.
Epilogue
This problem arose in the third and decisive playoff game in the
consolation finals of the 2002 Bah Humbug tournament in Medway, MA
between David Campbell and Life Master Henry Delong. Campbell, a Master
and former ACC Rookie of the Year, kept 2-5-5-8, figuring
that this would be a more deceptive hand than 4-5-5-Q if he
flunked the cut and needed to peg. He cut a 6 and pegged
only two points to finish in the stinkhole. Campbell says:
"I asked several Life Masters what they would hold in the same
situation, and only Harry Palmer said 4-5-5-Q. I
guess it is good that not everyone plays hands the same way in the same
situations — definitely makes cribbage a more interesting game."
Panelists
Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage
Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage
strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can
be seen on the ACC
Web site. He also provides strategy tips at
MSN Gaming
Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at
The Cribbage Bookstore.
John Chambers was one of the original founding
members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments,
and author of
Cribbage: A
New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean
State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage
Challenge.
DeLynn Colvert (1931–2019) is the highest rated tournament player in the history of organized cribbage. He was a five-time National Champion, author of
Play
Winning Cribbage, longtime editor of the monthly magazine Cribbage World,
and the ACC's only Life Master - Seven Stars. He directs the Montana
Championship and Montana Open, both held annually in Missoula, and serves as
President of the ACC.
George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held
each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the
ACC Web site.
Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.
Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been
playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a
Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30
tournaments a year.
Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a
member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about
eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and
the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.
HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer
cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version
of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been
translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For
more information, see the
HALSCRIB home page. |
prior month |
Ask the Experts contents |
next month
