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Dan Barlow:

Despite a strong desire to get that 5 into my crib, I'd have tossed 7-8 from this.

John Chambers:

In order to look at this situation fully, let's examine two scenarios. First, in general, regardless of your position, you could have thrown 7-8 or something similar. If you had A-2-3-4-5-6 you would keep the most points with the biggest potential, namely the 3-4-5-6. If you had something like 2-3-4-5-10-K, you would have thrown a 5-x combination. But suppose it is at the end of the game, you are both at hole 111, and you are the non-dealer. In this situation you would also keep 2-3-4-5 to give you one more chance to get the points you need.

DeLynn Colvert:

I might have tossed A-x hoping that the pegging potential of the 2-3-4-5 will make up for having A-x instead of 5-x in my crib. In general I'd discard 5-x if available and would keep 3-4-5 with a 7 or 8. Check the board and handle this with discretion.

George Rasmussen:

This is very unusual hand for dealer to retain. First question to ask is why am I holding a 5 in my hand for a single point when a 5 combined with any other card to the crib averages nearly six points, and many of those 5 combos are worth more. I should have tossed 7-7 to my crib. It would not make sense for dealer to hold 3-4-5-7 for five points and discard 2-7 to own crib. Hold 2-3-4-5 for four, and start with two points minimum in crib for combined value of six points. The only other possibility is the 7-8 discard, although in this case it would be preferable to hold 2-3-4-8 as those cards represent good pegging value, and the 5-7 to crib is a good discard with an average only slightly less than the 7-8 (7-8 averages 6.44 to one's own crib and 5-7 averages 6.0). In playing those five points and assuring two points in the crib, dealer starts with seven, which more than offsets the difference in crib value.

Michael Schell:

2-3-4-5 is a rarely held hand for dealer, or at least it ought to be. In most cases either the 2-3 or the 5 will perform better in the crib than in the hand. That's true for hands such as:

• A-2-3-4-5-6, 2-3-4-5-6-7, 2-3-4-5-6-8/9/x (toss 2-3)
• 2-3-4-5-7-9 and 2-3-4-5-7-x (toss the 5 and a mid-card)
• A-2-3-4-5-x, 2-3-4-5-8-x and 2-3-4-5-9-x (toss 5-x)
• 2-3-4-5-x-x (toss 5-x or perhaps 2-3 depending on the exact ten-cards)

The exceptions come when the last two cards are mid-cards, specifically 7-8, 8-9 or a pair of 7s, 8s or 9s. These do well enough in the crib that, coupled with the offensive pegging power of 2-3-4-5, it's probably better to keep the four-card run together than to split the mid-cards. For example, here are the numbers for 2-3-4-5-7-8:

Keep	Toss		Average   hand		Own crib:				Expected    average		Pegging (Schempp):			Pegging (Mueller):
					Static	Delta	Dynamic				Net	(pone/dealer)		Net	(pone/dealer)
2-3-4-5	7-8		8.61		6.53	-0.09	6.44		15.05		+2.5	(2.5/5.0)		+1.9	(1.9/3.8)
2-3-4-8	5-7		8.26		6.01	-0.08	5.93		14.19		+1.9	(1.7/3.6)		+1.8	(1.4/3.1)
3-4-5-7	2-8		8.30		3.66	-0.25	3.41		11.71		+3.0	(1.8/4.8)		+2.2	(1.5/3.7)

Note that if you start with a 6, then the 4-5-6 combo screams out to be kept together. And with 2-3-4-5-7-9, the 7-9 is too weak in your crib to prevail over tossing 5-7. Also note that if you plan to peg defensively, then you are probably better off keeping a mid-card instead of the 5 to better space your hand. That's not the case at 0*-0, so if I started with 7-7, 7-8, 8-8, 8-9 or 9-9 at that score, I could well find myself holding 2-3-4-5 after the cut.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I must have tossed 7-7 to my crib. With any other starting hand, I would have dumped the 5 in the crib.

Peter Setian:

The most logical discard is 7-7. Other discards like 7-8, 8-8, and 8-9 or 9-9, are debatable. In the latter three instances I think I would throw 5-8 or 5-9. Probably the most controversial discard is 7-8 (versus 5-7).

HALSCRIB:

Because I need to have six cards to make a discard decision, my creator had to feed me all possible non-flush hands that include 2-3-4-5. After calculating the expected averages and average pegging for each of the 91 possibilities, I conclude that I must have discarded 7-8 or a pair of 7s, 8s or 9s to have retained 2-3-4-5.

Here is some analysis. There are four broad groups of hands:

• The two extra cards are a pair
  With a pair of As through 6s I'll keep a double run. With a pair of ten-cards I'll keep 2-3-4-x. That leaves 7s, 8s, and 9s. As Schell notes, I get a better expected average and better net pegging keeping 2-3-4-5 instead of 2-3-4 with a mid-card
• The two extra cards are a non-pair both A through 5
  In this case I'll keep the double run, or else throw the pair of 5s
• One extra card is an A through 5, the other is a 6 through K
  With A-2-3-4-5-6 I'll keep A-4-5-6. With A-2-3-4-5-7/8/x I'll keep A-2-3-4. With A-2-3-4-5-9 I'll keep A-2-3-9. With any other hand in this group I'll have a double run to keep
• The two extra cards are a non-pair both 6 through K
  I'll toss 7-8 if available, but otherwise it works out better to toss 2-3 (with a 6 and anything else), 5-7 (with a 7 and a 9 or x), 5-9 or 5-x

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.