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Dan Barlow:

I keep A-A-8-9. Three cuts will give me more than six points, and Q-K is not a toss that scares me.

John Chambers:

Being the first hand of the game, I would throw the Q-K. This discard will not hurt you very often, and if it does you have over three streets to make it up. But let's say a 5 gets cut. Even though it will help the crib, it will also help your hand. Also remember that there is much more likelihood of a card between A and 9 being cut than a J, Q, or K.

DeLynn Colvert:

Aw, c'mon, go for it and keep A-A-8-9. You might cut yourself seven or eight points, and you could even peg a few more with the two As.

George Rasmussen:

Let me say that I am a rather defensive player when it comes to discarding to opponent. My first choice since I have only two points would be to make the safest discard. Goodbye 9-K! Now if we consider the disadvantage of such a small hand on the opening deal as pone, then it would seem apparent that some pegging potential might be considered. Even with a favorable cut on this hand, no adding machine will be need to score the hand. Let's discard the Q-K, which has a higher average than the 9-K, and increase the chances of pegging. If a 6 or 7 is cut giving seven or eight points in this hand, then lead from the As. If any other cut, lead the 8.

Michael Schell:

As first pone I start the game -8 to dealer's +8. Other things being equal I can just as easily play on, off or balanced at this score. But after seeing these dreary cards, other things aren't equal. The most I can possibly fetch in the hand with this is ten points if I hold A-A-Q-K and cut a 4, and that's a best case scenario. With such dim offensive prospects, it's tempting to just give up on a forward strategy and toss 9-K, hoping to slow down my opponent enough over the course of the game that his initial positional surplus erodes to nothing. This pretty much commits me to a defensive strategy for the duration, and if dealer turns out to have a blockbuster hand this deal, it'll be looking pretty grim.

So I think I'm going to toss Q-K. This will both gain ½ point more in the hand and give up ½ point more in the crib than than A-A-8-Q (I'll defer to HALSCRIB for the exact numbers). Q-K is a pretty good "gambling" toss if you're looking to spike dealer's crib. According to George Rasmussen's statistics it holds dealer to two points or less a trifle more often than 9-K. In one scenario I cut a low card, lead an A, and catch dealer with 5s and ten-cards. He pegs one point, gets six or eight in his hand, and is shut out in his crib having tossed 6-8. I then deal the second hand with my opponent already in marginal position. Alternatively I cut a 6, peg two or three points by leading away from my A-A, and deal the next hand -7 or -8 with enough time left in the game to mount an offensive strategy if my cards pick up. Of course I'm screwed if dealer tosses himself 5-x and I cut a ten-card (that's why Q-K is a gambling toss!), but as first pone I'll probably need to take some chances to win, and holding A-A-8-Q at least gives me a couple different favorable scenarios to hope for. As I've said before, at 0-0* it's often a good idea to make a forcing discard — one where the cut is likely to drive you toward a particular strategy — rather than one that might be statistically more favorable on average.

Phyllis Schmidt:

Not much to choose from here, but I'll keep A-A-8-9. This leaves more cards to help the hand and maybe peg a few too.

Peter Setian:

Since the hand has almost no potential (certainly not enough as the first hand for pone) I would vote for the conservative discard of 9-K to try holding the dealer to as few points as possible. It's a little early to try the "all or nothing" discards of Q-K or 8-9, which seem to have little in their favor anyway.

HALSCRIB:

This is not an inspiring bunch of cards. None of the possible keeps averages anywhere near the median eight points, and most of the alternatives net out within about ½ point of each other, so there's not all that much difference between the lot:

Keep	Toss		Max. hand	Average   hand	Opp's  crib	Expected   average	Average pegging:     Net (Pone/Dealer)
A-A-8-9	Q-K		8	4.35	4.78	-0.43	-0.65 (1.74/2.39)
A-A-8-Q	9-K		6	3.83	4.13	-0.30	-0.67 (1.80/2.48)
A-A-8-K	9-Q		6	3.83	4.20	-0.37	-0.54 (1.87/2.41)
A-A-9-Q	8-K		8	3.83	4.21	-0.36	-0.76 (1.91/2.67)
A-A-9-K	8-Q		8	3.83	4.37	-0.50	-0.57 (1.93/2.50)
A-A-Q-K	8-9		10	4.09	5.83	-1.74	-0.98 (1.54/2.52)

With so little offensive potential here, I'm disinclined to make a loose toss like 8-9 or Q-K. 9-K is the absolute safest toss, but tossing 8-K instead is almost as safe while retaining the A-A-9 combination for pegging. That seems like a worthwhile tradeoff, and it'll leave me with the option of leading the aggressive 9 in hopes of scoring a 31-4 if dealer replies with a ten-card, so A-A-9-Q is the play for me.

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.