At 78*-89 you deal yourself A-4-5-6-7-Q and keep 4-5-6-Q. Pone cuts the 8 and leads the 3. You were dealt no spades. What do you play?

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Dan Barlow:

In this position I don't want opponent pegging anything, because I'm not going to get close enough to go out next hand. So I play the 6, giving him only one pegging card. True, he pegs four if he has a 6, but I'll risk it. He's far more likely to have a 2 with that 3 than a 6.

John Chambers:

If the 8 starter hypothetically helps your opponent's hand and he also leads a 3, there are things you must assume. First, he could have 3s, 4s or 8s in his hand. Second, he could have other low cards or 7s in his hand. Third, he may have cards such as 2-3-4-8 or 3-4-5-7. What you are looking for is to minimize the pegging, not necessarily to stop him from pegging completely. After all, the further he gets down on Fourth Street, the better position he will have for his three counts. In this situation you should play the Q. If he does play the 2 for 15, you play off and drop the 5. The object in this situation is to force your opponent to have a good hand to get into position, not to let him peg into position.

Remember, if you are going to lose, let the hands beat you — not bad pegging.

DeLynn Colvert:

First, I would have held 4-5-6-7, but holding 4-5-6-Q I would play the 6 for all or nothing defense.

George Rasmussen:

First, I would not draw any conclusions relative to the suit led. Seeing one card of a suit is not much of a clue. The dealer in this case is at a distinct disadvantage and cannot afford to give up 15-2. The lead of the 3 in any suit forces all my cards off the play except for the 6. I don't want to play the Q, as it's a high percentage 15-2, and I can't play the 4 or 5. The safest play (less risk than the other options) is to play the 6. Another 6 with pone's 3 will be present in a small percentage of hands. In that case you'll get burned for 15-4.

Michael Schell:

I'll start by noting that going into the deal, pone is +3 while I'm -18. With that in mind, I'm going to play my 6, not the Q. Pone might have only four or six points with 2-3-x-x, but playing the Q gives up at least three pegs to it. The 6 has slightly less objective risk (three cards times four points, compared to seven cards times two points). I think it's worth going for here, since I must try to shut my opponent out entirely, and hope that her hands are substandard from here on out.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I would take a chance with the 5. If he gets a run, I would play away. I do not want to get into a pegging contest at this point.

Peter Setian:

Your hand and board position clearly call for defensive play. But since pone only needs 6 to 8 points total for decent position, I could see arguments to play almost any card except the 4. Considering the 8 cut, I actually like playing the 5. That's with the assumption that if pone holds a 4 or 7 (with the 3), he/she will have a decent hand and great position anyways.

HALSCRIB:

I agree with the discard of A-7. I estimate that pone will have first count at hole 115 while I cool my heels at 104*. Clearly I need to slow pone down. Any card I play has some risk, but which will minimize it? I think the 6 is the percentage play. Why? Because almost all of pone's 40 most likely hands (given the cards I've seen, including the 3 lead) contain a 2 and either:

• A run of three including a 15 combination
• A run of four
• A double run
• Another 2 or 3 and a ten-card
• 5-x-x, or
• x-x

Hands without a 2 contain either:

• 5-7 and a pair
• A-A-x

Only the 26th and 29th hands on the list contain a 6. I'm willing to accept getting burned on these to avoid giving up any easy pegs to the others.

	Average pegging:
	Net	(pone/dealer)
4	+0.39	(2.78/3.17)
5	+0.67	(2.28/2.95)
6	+1.06	(2.00/3.06)
Q	+0.26	(2.26/2.52)

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.