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Dan Barlow:

Toss 9-10. It's the most points you can save, has the potential for a big hand (twelve, fourteen, maybe even fifteen), and three of the four cuts that don't improve the hand do improve the crib.

John Chambers:

If I'm the dealer in this situation I would keep A-2-2-J and discard the 9-10 to my crib. I think 9-10 will perform a little better there than 10-J.

DeLynn Colvert:

I toss the 10-J, holding the magic eleven 9-2 combo for pegging, nailing any ten-card leads.

George Rasmussen:

Discard the 9-10. Retaining three small cards with one large card is generally preferable to retaining three large cards with one small one. In addition, A-2-2-J offers hand potential of fifteen points with cut of 3 to match the J. The deuce cut scores a dozen (or thirteen the J is matched). And the A cut is worth eight or nine. If holding A-9-10-J, the most points the cut could provide would be eight or nine, and you would lose the pegging potential of the small cards.

Michael Schell:

The key here is knowing how to accurately assess the relative pegging potential of A-2-2-J and A-9-10-J over the board. The latter keep will produce the most combined hand/crib points by a small margin, as the addition method accurately predicts. But when you're dealer, a 3/1 lo-hi hand (three low cards and one ten-card) will generally net one point better in the pegging than a 1/3 hand (one low card and three high cards). This is borne out by Schempp's and Mueller's static pegging numbers.

Keep  Toss    Average   hand Own crib:    Expected    average   Static    Delta   Dynamic  A-9-10-J     2-2 5.57 5.72 -0.07 5.65 11.22 A-2-2-J 9-10 6.80 4.29 -0.15 4.14 10.94

Keep  Toss      Pegging (Schempp):     Pegging (Mueller): Net (pone/dealer) Net (pone/dealer) A-9-10-J     2-2 +0.7 (2.4/3.1) +0.2 (1.9/2.1) A-2-2-J 9-10 +1.9 (1.8/3.6) +1.4  (1.4/2.8)

Those three low cards are powerful, especially compared to the mediocre potential of A-9-10-J. You'll often run the 2-2 pair for three points on the first play series, and you'll earn the occasional bonanza against hands like A-2-3-3, 2-2-5-J, 2-3-4-5 and 2-4-J-J. More surprising, perhaps, is that the 3/1 hand rates better both for pegging offense and defense. Perhaps that's because of this:

^J  _A  ⁵  _J (26-1)    ^J  ₉  ^10 (29-4)    _10 (10-1)

^J  _J (20-2)  ^J (30-6)  _A (31-2)    ¹⁰  _10 (20-2)  ^5 (25-1)    _9 (9-1)

Compared to:

^J  _A  ⁵  ₂   ¹⁰  _2 (30-1)    ^J  _J  (20-3)

^J  _J (20-2)  ^J (30-6)  _A (31-2)    ¹⁰  ₂  ⁵  _2 (19-1)

Phyllis Schmidt:

I'm undecided between throwing 9-10 or 2-2. I think I'd go with 9-10 hoping to peg a few at the end.

Peter Setian:

I would throw 9-10. The one point sacrifice is worth what appears to be a better potential for both hand and crib. The hand will likely do better during the pegging duel as well.

HALSCRIB:

Before the cut, I predict that I will win as pone with seven holes to spare, with opponent at hole 117 (including pegging). My priority is to maximize my hand and crib while minimizing my opponent's pegging. Based on my numbers below, A-2-2-J fits the bill best:

Keep	Toss		Average   hand	Own   crib	Less opp's pegging	Total
A-2-2-J	9-10		6.80	4.06	-1.43	9.43
A-9-10-J	2-2		5.57	5.47	-1.93	9.11

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.