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Dan Barlow:

I keep 2-3-10-K. This gives me a chance to win the game even if dealer has a good hand. Am I worried about tossing 8-9? Of course. But the vast majority of cuts will improve my hand, and won't work with 8-9. I've been getting better cuts than him all game, my luck will hold out one more hand.

John Chambers:

As the nondealer at hole 110 with the dealer at 96, I would keep 2-3-10-K.

You may say: But you're throwing an 8-9 to your opponent's crib. If he gets an average hand and a good crib it will put him in position. Wouldn't it be better to discard the 2-K? Let's examine this. If you keep 3-8-9-10 there are four cards that will give you at least 7 points. That means the starter card will help you about 31% of the time. If you keep the 2-3-10-K there are seven cards which will give you at least 7 points. The starter card will help you about 54.6% of the time. I want to get as close to the game hole as possible so I can peg out next time. Therefore keeping the 2-3-10-K makes the most sense.

DeLynn Colvert:

Since you need eleven to win, keep 3-8-9-10 and lead the 3. You may score eleven with the cut and peg.

George Rasmussen:

Some aggressive players would hold 2-3-10-K, go for a 2 or 3 cut, and likely win the game on this hand if the starter was favorable. Not for me! Got to play 8-9-10 with 2 or 3 with the discard of 2-K or 3-K. I slightly prefer to retain the 3 in this case to lead when holding the 9. Give me a chance to get rid of that lone small card, take 15 if the 3 is paired, and split my remaining cards. With opponent at hole 96*, I don't want to chance the 8-9 and retain four points. If I can keep the crib score and pegging down, it's very likely that I will win on next deal.

Michael Schell:

I have three plausible choices:

• Maximize my immediate offensive, game-ending potential with 2-3-10-K
• Play defensively with 2-3-8-9
• Split the difference with 3-8-9-10 (which I prefer to 2-8-9-10 due to the covered 3 lead)

First off, dealer is at 96*, which is slightly better than even odds for going out in three counts, making my "back-end" a bit less than 50%. With dealer exactly at the Fourth Street positional hole, every "extra" point that I give up will add about 7% to this amount.

Dealer is only about a 6% favorite to go out in two counts though, so there's a strong probability that I'll get to peg as dealer next hand if I haven't gone out first. Note that my opponent is too far away from home to be able to sacrifice scoring potential for pegging defense. With that in mind, here's an estimate of my likelihood of pegging different amounts in two deals (as pone, then as dealer). These numbers don't reflect the possibility of dealer going out in two counts, or getting close enough to peg out next deal himself:

Points needed          to peg	Likelihood
1	100%
2	96%
3	87%
4	74%
5	58%
6	44%

As you can see, I have a strong incentive to get within three or even four points of home. Further away than that, and my offensive prospects are iffy, and it would be better to play defensively and hope my opponent falls short. Now let's look at the alternatives.

• The aggressive 2-3-10-K gets to the stinkhole on six cuts, gets within 3 on ten cuts, within 4 on eight cuts, and within 5 on eight more. 8-9 gives up 5.8 points in the crib, a full point more than a median crib
• The middling 3-8-9-10 gets within 3 points on nine cuts, within 4 on three cuts and within 5 on four cuts. For what it's worth, it also gets within 6 on sixteen more cuts, though it's not likely I'd peg aggressively in that case. The 2-K toss gives up about 4.4 points here, benefiting from some favorable delta as I've blocked a 15 combination in the retained 3. That's about ½ a point less than a median crib, probably giving me at least a 50% chance on the back end
• The "defensive" 2-3-9-10 actually turns out to be at least as valuable on offense as 3-8-9-10, as it gets within 3 on three cuts, within 4 on twelve cuts and within 5 on six cuts, and is a better offensive pegger with two low cards in a magic five. The 8-K toss doesn't get much in the way of favorable delta, and thus gives up about 4.2 points, a tad better than 2-K

Without going too crazy mathematically, I estimate that 2-3-10-K will win on the front end about 20–25% more often than 2-3-9-10 or 2-8-9-10. The 8-9 toss should cost 7–11% off my back chances. I'm pretty sure that the offensive potential of 2-3-10-K will outweigh the defensive cost, so it's 2-3-10-K for me.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I think throwing 8-9 to hold four points is too risky. I would toss 2-K, lead the 3 and hope for the best.

Peter Setian:

I would keep 2-3-9-10 (and throw 8-K). Nearly half the cut cards will provide 6–8 points. After pegging, I would try to at least get within three points (118*) to possibly peg out on the very likely next hand as dealer. At the same time, if short of that position, throwing 8-K will still require decent cards from your opponent to obtain the advantage when dealing from 96*.

HALSCRIB:

This "sizeable lead" is not safe. With an average cut, average pegging, and average cards by both players, I will wind up at hole 117* dealing with pone at hole 111. I will win if I can peg out or my opponent gets below-average scoring. Regardless of my discard here, I'm exposed to a potential minimum of 14 points in the crib. If I keep four sure points, I'm exposed to a potential 24-point crib (by tossing 8-9). If I toss the statistically safest 10-K, I'm exposed to a potential 20-point crib. With so many variables in play, I will not go for broke but will play the percentages and keep 2-3-9-10, tossing 8-K, which gives up a maximum of 14 (or perhaps 15 in the rare case of a crib flush).

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.