Ask the experts, October 2004

Here's an age-old one: It's the first hand of the game, you're dealer and you deal yourself A-2-3-4-x-x. What do you like to discard from this hand? To what extent does it depend on the exact ten-cards?

hide answers

Dan Barlow:

I like to toss 2-3. Half the cards that will turn A-2-3-4 into ten points will also turn A-4-J-K into ten points. And the other half will go very well with my crib if I've tossed 2-3. Though I like tossing J-Q in my crib, 2-3 is one of the better tosses, so I would not alter my play dependent on which ten-cards I hold.

John Chambers:

If I'm the dealer in this situation I would discard the 2-3 to my crib. I ended up winning a tournament because of this play. After discarding the 2-3 to my crib an A was cut. I had ten in my hand and my opponent discarded a 2-Q to my crib which meant I had 14 points in my crib. But what if you had touching tenth cards? I would still do the same because this option gives more flexibility in pegging.

DeLynn Colvert:

Always toss 2-3 to your crib. It does not matter what ten-cards you hold.

George Rasmussen:

On the first hand of game and most hands in game, I would discard 2-3 to my crib. I start with six points that way (four in the hand and a guaranteed two in the crib). Any small card or x as starter card will give good combined scores of crib/hand. There is a mild argument for holding A-2-3-4 as dealer since on an x lead, you play the 4 for a count of 14. Pone can't play a five, and so makes the count 24 with another ten-pointer. You drop the 3 for 27 and opponent says go, to which you play the 2 for 29 and the A for 30 scoring a run of three plus a go. The problem with holding A-2-3-4 as dealer is that the pegging potential is often thwarted if opponent is holding middle cards. Worse, if opponent leads a small card, dealer is forced to play to either side of it, pair it, or make the count five — not a good place to be on the opening hand.

Play the crib. That 2-3 averages more than 7 points to the crib. Those who have doubts as to the value of the 2-3 to the crib can start studying those ten-cards. If the two ten-point cards are 10-K or Q-K, you've got to toss the 2-3 to your crib. Those two discard combinations are so weak to own crib that you should not make them if you have a reasonable alternative. In this case you have a great alternative. Of the x-x combinations, J-Q is the strongest. Of course, if they're a pair, hold the pair with the A-4, toss the 2-3, and start with eight points. By the way, it is much easier to score five points in the crib than it is by pegging. This advice comes from a strong pegger.

Michael Schell:

The toss of 2-3 to your own crib from A-2-3-4-x-x has long been a staple of expert play, and even has a name: the Michaelis A-2-3-4 (after the late Mick Michaelis). There's no doubt that this invariably returns the best expected average — anywhere from to 2 points more than A-2-3-4, A-2-3-x or 2-3-4-x. But there's an important pegging concept that comes into play here: namely that for dealer, 1/3 and 2/2 lo-hi hands are vastly inferior to 3/1 and 4/0 hands in the pegging. That is, given a distribution of low (A through 4) and high (10 through K) cards, hands with one or two low cards peg much worse for dealer than hands with three or four low cards. The following examples (against pone's most common hand distribution of 5-x-x-x) should demonstrate why this is so:

J  4  Q  3  2  A (30-4)    J  5 (15-3)

J  A  5  2  Q  3 (31-2)    J  K (20-1)

J  A  5  Q  4 (30-1)    J  K  Q (30-4)

J  A  5  K (26-1)    J  K  Q (30-4)    Q (10-1)

In the first two cases (4/0 and 3/1), dealer outpegs pone, but in the last two cases (2/2 and 1/3) pone outpegs dealer. If you look at Halscrib's numbers, you'll find that A-2-3-4 nets a full point better than A-4-x-x in the pegging.

If you can toss J-Q, 10-J, J-K or even Q-K, then I think you'll do a little better keeping A-2-3-4 together. With a weak ten-card combination (10-Q or the rightly loathed 10-K) or a pair, then make the usual 2-3 toss. In all cases tossing A-x or 4-x is inferior.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I would always throw 2-3 to the crib regardless of the ten-cards.

Peter Setian:

Sure is an age-old one. I wouldn't hesitate to throw 2-3 in the crib. We know A-2-3-4 cannot count to more than ten points (and may get you caught in unwanted pegging exchanges). So even if that 2 or 3 gets cut to leave you with a four point hand, you would have to be very unlucky for the crib not to be at least six points. Even if the ten-cards were 10-J or J-Q, which have the best chance of improving (from zero) in the crib, I'd still throw 2-3.

HALSCRIB:

I'm still of the school that thinks that having first deal means that you should start the game a bit conservatively to protect your built-in positional advantage. This is especially true if you deal yourself decent cards to start out with. I will discard to maximize the sum of my hand and crib while minimizing pone's pegging, a calculation I call Defense Value. This will lead me to keep A-4-x-x regardless of the ten-cards. Here, for example, are my numbers for A-2-3-4-J-Q:

Keep  Toss 

  Average  
hand

 Own  
crib

Expected
average
  Pegging  Defense 
Value
Net (pone/dealer)
A-2-3-4     J-Q 8.09 4.77 12.86   +2.05 (1.80/3.85) 11.06
A-2-3-Q 4-J 7.78 3.51 11.29   +2.02  (1.20/3.22) 10.09
A-4-J-Q 2-3 6.76 6.44 14.20   +0.82  (1.57/2.39) 11.63
2-3-J-Q A-4 7.15 5.24 12.39   +0.52  (1.83/2.35) 10.56

Note that at a different score I might have kept A-2-3-4 to maximize offense or A-2-3-x to maximize pegging defense. If the ten-cards are a pair, though, I'll pretty much always keep A-4-x-x.

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

DeLynn Colvert (1931–2019) is the highest rated tournament player in the history of organized cribbage. He was a five-time National Champion, author of Play Winning Cribbage, longtime editor of the monthly magazine Cribbage World, and the ACC's only Life Master - Seven Stars. He also directed two annual tournaments in Missoula, MT, served as the ACC's President, and was one of the game's most affable emissaries. It's scarcely an exaggeration to say that Colvert's career defines modern cribbage.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.


 
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