You're pone at 115-106*, and get dealt A 3 5 6 J K. Needing six points to win, what do you keep?

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Dan Barlow:

I need six. If I keep the flush, even if I cut one of the four cards that won't help me (7, 10, Q, K), I still win if I cut the right suit. That gives the flush an edge over keeping the 5.

John Chambers:

In this situation as the non-dealer I would keep 5-6-J-K. I wouldn't even worry about discarding the A-3 to your opponents crib. After all there are 9 of 13 cards which can help your hand. And if you don't get the cut you can possibly peg the two points you need.

DeLynn Colvert:

Gotta go with the flush. The pegging deception will be worth anything I give up by relinquishing the 5.

George Rasmussen:

Since I'm only six points from the win, I retain 5-6-J-K. There are 32 cards that will give me the six points (4-4-4-4, 5-5-5, 6-6-6, 7-7-7-7, 9-9-9-9, 10-10-10-10, J-J-J, Q-Q-Q-Q and K-K-K). By the way there are also 32 cards which would put me out holding the 3-5-J-K (2-2-2-2, 3-3-3, 4-4-4-4, 5-5-5, 7-7-7-7, 10-10-10-10, J-J-J, Q-Q-Q-Q and K-K-K). If I miss one of those card however, I believe I have a slightly better chance to get a peg or two by leading the J. If dealer puts a 5 for 15-2, I can pair the 5 with no chance that dealer can peg out from 106*. The 6 will prevent the drop of the remaining 5s for a pegging coup. If dealer puts an x on my J lead, I have a chance to score a run or close the count at 30, and I'm still holding 5-6 with dealer having the next lead.

Michael Schell:

Sometimes it's faster to count the losing cuts. Reckoning from the top down, 5-6-J-K flunks on a wrong 8, 3, 2 or A (twelve total) and gets to the stinkhole on the right 8 or 2. 3-5-J-K flunks on a wrong 9, 8, 6 or A (also twelve), getting to the stinkhole on the right 9 or 8. The flush does a little better since it includes the J and thus gets at least six on any matching cut. Thus it loses only on a wrong K, wrong Q, wrong 10 or wrong 7 (eleven total). It also seems a bit more likely to peg two points. However it means tossing 5-K to the crib, a difference of 2.3 points compared to tossing A-6. I suspect that'll count for more in the long run, so I'd keep 3-5-J-K here, though it's probably close.

I prefer 3-5-J-K to 5-6-J-K because the toss is a little safer and because two-card magic elevens are generally awkward in pone's hand. If I blow the cut, I'll lead the J, which will likely keep dealer's 9 off the table, thus increasing the chances of catching a 5 or even a 2 or 3 instead — hence the preference over leading the K.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I keep 3-5-J-K, hoping for a few pegs or a cut to go out without having to peg.

Peter Setian:

Strictly counting cards — if you can do so fast enough during a game — and considering pegging probabilities for six points, I would keep the A-3-6-J flush. This hand has the most cuts for six points, and like most flush hands, a good chance at pegging the two points (if necessary) when leading the J. Only 11 out of 46 cut cards won't give you six points.

HALSCRIB:

Gosh, how to weigh the offensive potential of pegging and hand count, and how to balance offense in general against the defensive value of keeping dealer short in case I don't get a cut? Let's roll some numbers:

Keep	Toss		Average   hand		Pegging		Offense  Value
					Net	(pone/dealer)
A-3-5-6	J-K		5.13		-0.74	(2.02/2.76)	7.15
A-3-6-J flush	5-K		5.52		-1.18	(1.52/2.70)	7.04
3-5-J-K	A-6		5.43		-1.27	(1.43/2.70)	6.86
5-6-J-K	A-3		5.43		-0.93	(1.89/2.83)	7.32

The surprise in the lot is A-3-5-6, worth only two points going in, but guaranteed to improve to at least four points after the cut. In fact, it wins outright on an A, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 or 9 cut and gets to the stinkhole on a 2. That's not as good as 5-6-J-K, which wins outright on any 4, 5, 6, 7, 9 or ten-card, and I don't think the extra pegging potential of the maverick A-3-5-6 hand will quite offset the difference. A 3 6 J rates a little lower on offense, so I don't even need to consider whether tossing 5-K is justified at this score (though I'm inclined to dismiss defensive considerations altogether here). 3-5-J-K rates lower still.

On balance I'll go with 5-6-J-K, planning to lead the J if I blow the cut. The humans might consider that a boring choice, but I'm not paid to worry about aesthetics.

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.