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Dan Barlow:

Well, the 4 loses if he has another 4 and six points. The Q loses if he has an A and ten points. He's more likely to have six points than ten, but he's more likely to have an A than a 4. I would pair him, not because I need the two points, but because I don't think he has another 4. There are 13 cards in play. Three of them are Qs. The chances that another three of them are 4s aren't good.

John Chambers:

In this situation I would play the Q, making the play 14. If you were to pair and your opponent gets a pairs royal, you are less likely to get the skunk. You need to try to play off as much as possible, making it more difficult for your opponent to get points. Hold down your opponent's pegging in the event he has a small hand.

DeLynn Colvert:

I would play a Q with only one loser Q out. If he plays an A, you pair it. If he plays another 4, pair that too.

George Rasmussen:

Let's assume that I need this skunk win to qualify in the tournament. After the cut of the Q, I have twelve points, since a flush for eight points had been retained and I'll be counting first on next deal. Give me the non-dealer average of 1.8 pegs and I'll be at hole 116 needing five on the next count. On a 4 lead, I play my Q. There's a Q on deck and my discard included a Q. I also have an A in hand. Pure numbers in this case are with me. I wouldn't touch the 4 as I'm playing for a skunk. Six pegs in this case for a triple would most likely destroy chance to score a skunk win. Pairing the 4 would also give opponent a chance to score 15-2 with the play of a 7. I haven't seen any of those 7s. I have seen three Q and an A. When in doubt, play the numbers.

Michael Schell:

The obvious move is to play off with a ten-card (presumably the Q), thus protecting you against 4-4-5-x, 4-4-7-8 and 4-5-6-7. But pairing prevails over the far more likely A-4-x-x, whereas refusing gets you in trouble, since you could well have only two points in your crib. Pairing also does better against 4-5-6-x, A-4-5-x, 4-5-6-9 and 3-4-5-8 (in that order of likelihood), though it's worse against 3-4-5-7. Note that either play fails against A-4-4-x, 2-3-4-4, 4-4-5-6 or 3-4-4-5, so getting tripled isn't as costly as it appears.

Phyllis Schmidt:

Play the Q. Go with the odds of no Q. If pone doesn't play a ten-card, I'd get rid of my A next.

Peter Setian:

With at least fifteen points between the hand, crib, and pegging points, the game is virtually won, no matter how the pegging cards are played. So assuming that this is not a final rubber game in a match, you're strictly going for the skunk, and not putting the game on the line. One might argue that pairing the 4 may nullify any chance of the pone dealing another hand to possibly peg over, if necessary. But with a hefty twelve points needed by the pone, I would play the Q. Then reassess after the next play, not being afraid to play the A on pone's reply of a middle card such as a 5 or 6.

HALSCRIB:

I have a tremendous headache this month since my boss has been upgrading me to version 6.7, so don't expect too much.

An important point about this situation is that my crib might not amount to much, judging from pone's most likely holdings of A-4-x-x, A-A-4-x and A-4-4-x, followed by the likes of 4-5-6-x, 4-5-6-9, 2-3-4-6, etc. I might catch a couple mid-cards with my 6-Q, but more likely I'll be lucky to wind up with anything more than the two points I know about. If I only peg the minimum one point as dealer, I probably won't go out  this deal, and may get no further than 117, which should be too far away to peg out as pone before dealer slips over the skunk line. Weighing against this is the prospect of giving up a triple and getting dealer over the line when her hand count, or else getting within pegging range next deal. I'm guessing that pairing the 4 will win about 25% more skunks on this deal, and that the enhanced prospect of pegging out next deal before dealer crosses will at least offset her enhanced chances of creeping within pegging range as a result of a triple (or a 15-2 with a 7). So I'm pairing away, which will also slam the door on what little chance my opponent has to actually win if I go bust next deal.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.