Ask the experts, May 2005

With the score tied 22*-22, you deal yourself A-2-5-6-7-9 and toss A-2. Pone cuts a Q and leads a 2. What's your play?

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Dan Barlow:

I want to keep the 5 and 9 to reduce chances of getting trapped into a run. Playing the 6 is better than playing the 7, because I plan to pair if pone scores 15-2, and I don't want to make the count 21 when I pair.

John Chambers:

After the non-dealer leads a 2 in this situation, I would play the 9, looking to peg later with the 5-6-7. Sure, your opponent could peg too, but you're in good position and your opponent would need around 22 points in pegging and and hand to get into position.

DeLynn Colvert:

I may be a little short here, so I'll play the 6, enticing a 7. Peg on!

George Rasmussen:

I'm a bit short for the deal, which will influence the play of my hand. I'm also thinking that my A-2 to the crib may be real lonely after seeing my opponent's opening lead of a 2. I would play the 9 for 11, retaining the 5-6-7 intact in hopes of picking up a run on the next round of play. The 5-6 might also score 15 and 31 if large cards were retained with the deuce.

Michael Schell:

I'm only +4 at the start of the deal, while pone is -12. The most she can have in her hand is 14 (or 15 with a 2-5-10-J flush matching the starter), which still leaves her well short of the positional hole (44). Meanwhile I'm only seeing seven points in my own hand (effectively dropping me to +3), while my crib is A-2-Q-?-? with my opponent's opening lead suggesting that she hasn't helped me much in the cat. As a result, I'm looking for some extra offense here. General principle in such cases says you should keep your touching cards together, hoping to create runs later. In this case that would mean dropping the 9, hoping for something like:

2  9  4 (15-2)  7  3  6 (31-2)    J  5 (15-3)

2  9  K  7 (27-1)    Q  5 (15-2)  J  6 (31-2)

I can't see any tactical advantage to playing the 5, 6 or 7 first, so my play is the thematic 9. I'll be interested to see if the bot agrees, given its ability to methodically calculate pegging scenarios against pone's likeliest hands.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I'd play the 6. Since I have a 7, that cuts down the odds on him getting a 15-2.

Peter Setian:

Nothing too unusual here. On the 2, I would play the 6, and definitely follow up by pairing any 7 played for 15-2. If my 6 is paired, I can get away from any serious trouble with the 9.

HALSCRIB:

Before the cut, the 5-6-7-9 keep gives us about a 55% chance of winning, which is 0.5% better than the next best, 2-5-6-7, a better pegging hand. With the Q starter and pone's lead of the 2, our probable winning chances drop to about 53.5%.

Most of the humans got it right when they decided to peg offensively. Tactically, though, someone here is out to lunch. I hope it's not me, but I think the 7 works out better than the 6 or 9. If pone plays on with a 6, I'll reply with my 5 for a run of three, perhaps leading to one of the following scenarios:

2  7  6 (15-2)  5 (20-3)  4 (24-4)  6 (30-4)    3  9 (12-1)

2  7  6 (15-2)  5 (20-3)  5 (25-2)  6 (31-2)    4  9 (13-1)

2  7  6 (15-2)  5 (20-3)  4 (24-4)  6 (30-4)    9  9 (18-3)

Compare that to playing the 9 first, and you'll see what I mean:

2  9  4 (15-2)  7  6 (28-1)    6  3  5 (14-1)

2  9  4 (15-2)  7  6 (28-1)    6  5  5 (16-3)

2  9  4 (15-2)  7  6 (28-1)    6  9 (15-2)  5 (20-1)

Or the 6:

2  6  6 (14-2)  9  4  3 (30-1)    7  5 (12-1)

2  6  6 (14-2)  9  5 (28-1)    7  4  5 (16-1)

2  6  9  9 (26-2)  4 (30-1)    7  6  5 (18-4)

Click here for a guide to cribbage notation and symbols.

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

DeLynn Colvert (1931–2019) is the highest rated tournament player in the history of organized cribbage. He was a five-time National Champion, author of Play Winning Cribbage, longtime editor of the monthly magazine Cribbage World, and the ACC's only Life Master - Seven Stars. He also directed two annual tournaments in Missoula, MT, served as the ACC's President, and was one of the game's most affable emissaries. It's scarcely an exaggeration to say that Colvert's career defines modern cribbage.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.


 
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