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Dan Barlow:

You shouldn't go for it here, because even if you get it, you won't necessarily get out. If dealer were at 101* it would be a different story, but don't expect him to go thirty holes in two hands and a crib. (That's you. As for me, I should go for it, because it's almost unheard of for one of my opponents to fail to get exactly what he needs.)

John Chambers:

You're in good position, your opponent is not in good position. On average he's about five holes short. Your goal is to keep your opponent short. In this situation you would discard the 6-K. Let's assume that you get only six points including the cut and pegging. That would put you at hole 108*. Now let's assume that your opponent gets eight in the hand, four in the crib and four in the pegging.. That would put him at hole 107. He will still need 14 points on his first count to go out. At this point you need to play it safe all around so you can minimize the number of points he gets this time, which will maximize the amount he will need next time to go out.

DeLynn Colvert:

I would hold the 5-6-Q-Q, the right balance between safety and the possibility for offense on a 4 cut.

George Rasmussen:

I like my position very much, and dealer is short. I want to keep this positional advantage, so I play maximum defense in this area. My discard is the most defensive choice in that hand: goodbye 6-K! When playing defense on Fourth Street, it is wise to make the safest choice possible. I do understand that the 8-K discard leaves a better-looking hand to play. The 5-6-Q-Q is a smoother combination. There's a good chance my strategy will work and that opponent will have first count next time and need 14–16 points to win. My strategy would not be the same if opponent were dealing from 98*.

Michael Schell:

I'm +16 while dealer is -5, so I'm a serious favorite (around 80% I'd guess) if I just play defensively. In that light, an aggressive toss has to be especially compelling if it entails serious risk, and I don't think 5-Q-Q-K meets that standard. The 6-8 toss costs me more than 1½ points in the crib relative to 6-K or 8-K. Using the rule of thumb that each point you give dealer when he's near 96* represents 6% of winning chances, I'd estimate that the aggressive play reduces my back-end chances by about 10%. For that I get seven shots (a 15% chance) at 16 points, plus two more shots at 14, and if I hit I'll probably either peg enough extra to win this deal or else peg out next deal (30 points is a lot for dealer to score on one deal even with 6-8 awaiting him in the crib). I'll guess that my front-end chances would improve by roughly 15% with the aggressive keep, but the problem is that I'd have won most of those games anyway with conservative play, so the real gain is much less than that, certainly not enough to get me back up to the 80% neighborhood.

So the question is whether to keep 5-6-Q-Q or 5-8-Q-Q. I perfer 5-6-Q-Q, which is only .06 points more dangerous in the crib and somewhat more awkward for defensive pegging, but gives me decent forward chances on a 4, 5 or Q cut, especially if I catch dealer with ten cards (which will earn me at least five pegging points). The extra shot at winning on a 5 cut versus ten-cards is particularly appealing as this could otherwise be very dangerous for me.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I keep 5-8-Q-Q. I'll play all defense and try to keep dealer back. 30 holes is a long way to go.

Peter Setian:

I would not "go for it", mostly because the dealer is well short of position — needing a whole street with two hands and crib. Also, even though a 16 point hand should technically be enough to win by dealing one to three points away, only the 5 or J cut will give me the big hand (unlike holding something like 5-10-J-Q which has 70% more cut cards, twelve instead of seven).

HALSCRIB:

With average scoring, we rate to win next deal with seven points to spare while opponent falls about four holes short. Let's not jeopardize that by going half-cocked with 5-Q-Q-K, hoping for a 5 or J cut that itself isn't even enough to put us out. Better is 5-8-Q-Q, making the safest available toss (6-K), but even better is 5-6-Q-Q, which is only a trifle more dangerous in the crib, but gives us more forward chances in the way of a 4, 5 or Q cut accompanied by something like this:

^Q  ₉  ^Q (29-1)    _J  ^5 (15-2)  ₁₀  ^6 (31-2)    _J (10-1)

I reckon scenarios like this give 5-6-Q-Q a 1–2% edge over 5-8-Q-Q.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.