From a game by George Rasmussen. You're pone at 106-119*, so you need 15 points while holding dealer to one peg. You're dealt 4 5 8 J Q K. What do you keep? Win this game, and you'll make All-American for the year.

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Dan Barlow:

If I'm going to peg zero or one, my chances of getting out (assuming dealer pegs only one) are best if I save 5-J-Q-K. If I'm going to peg three or more holes, my chances are better with the flush. If I peg exactly two, it's about 50-50 which hand is better to keep. Ignoring my needs for the moment, do I want that 4 in my hand so badly I'll accept lower odds of getting the full 15 points? Actually, no. While dealer is twice as likely to have been dealt a 5 or a K than a 4, he's not twice as likely to peg on my K as on my 4. Why? Because Dealer is likely to have tossed his K in this position, and he's almost as unlikely to have tossed a 4 as a 5. Since I don't expect to peg much no matter what I save, I'm keeping the run and leading the K.

DeLynn Colvert:

Yes, I would keep the flush since dealer needs only two pegs to win, and pegging would be crucial. I would then lead the 4.

George Rasmussen:

I believe dealer will peg out against 5-J-Q-K, as he only needs only two points, and this hand doesn't give a decent lead. I opted to retain 4 5 J K. That gives me a much-improved lead with the 4, which can only be paired. Other leads can be paired or 15-2'd. I've got to drop the 5 as the second card played regardless of count. Hopefully that will cause the dealer to drop two cards and I will have J-K remaining to dealer having a single card. Since nothing happened on the lead of the 4 or the play of the 5, and dealer drops those two cards for a go, I am home free, and will lead from the K as it is preferable to leading from a J in endgame situations. The cut was a 6, I gave dealer one peg only, and I scored my 15 points to win the game and advance to the final four at the Portland Summer Open, giving me the 135 IRPs necessary to earn a spot on the 2005 All-American Team.

By the way, retaining the flush, there are 22 cards which give me 12 points or more (A-A-A-A, 3, 5-5-5, 6-6-6-6, 10, J-J-J, Q-Q-Q and K-K-K). In the case of retaining 5-J-Q-K, there are 16 cards that give me 12 points or more (5-5-5, 10-10-10-10, J-J-J, Q-Q-Q and K-K-K).

Michael Schell:

Interesting choice between the obvious 5-J-Q-K, which is most likely to get you 15+ points, and the tricky 4 5 J K, which is more likely to be counted whatever its final value. Over the board, I'd do a specific count calculation on the two candidate hands. This is especially difficult with a J and a flush to deal with, as you'll get one or two extra points on a matching cut. As usual, I'll only consider cuts that get me within three of home.

• 5-J-Q-K reaches on a 5, Q or K cut, gets to within two on the 10 and to within three on any other 10. That's (9 ∙ 1) + (1 ∙ ⅓) + (2 ∙ ¼) ≈ 10
• A flush with a J is just too hard to fully calculate over the board, so I just go rank-by-rank, ignoring starter suit. Then I add a flat 1 for the possibility of a five-card flush, plus another 1 for the possible right J. Thus 4 5 J K gets 14 on a 5 cut, 13 on a 6 or Q cut and 12 on an A or K cut. I'll reckon this as (3 ∙ ½) + (7 ∙ ⅓) + (7 ∙ ¼) + 1 + 1 ≈ 8

5-J-Q-K has the edge by my estimate. A subtle point is that if dealer can score 15-2 against a ten-card lead, he can probably also find a way to pair your 5 if you start out with 4-5-J-K. For that reason, 4-5-J-K might not have as much pegging advantage here as it appears. So it's 5-J-Q-K for me, planning to lead the "psychological" Q if I don't cut a K. In real life the two options shouldn't differ in equity by more than a couple percent, so if I'm wrong, at least I'm not wrong by much.

Phyllis Schmidt:

This is an almost impossible situation, but I'd keep 5-J-Q-K. With 4 5 J K, only two cards would give me 15 points (6 and Q).

Peter Setian:

Technically you only need a 14 point hand with either holding, as you must get at least a go to keep the dealer to one peg. I would still keep 5-J-Q-K. I'm not expecting to get more than a go for one peg point either way, and the defensive pegging flush hold gives me only 13 points with the off-suit 6 or Q cuts. (So one point closer, I'd keep the flush.)

HALSCRIB:

My winning chances are slim but not none. With 4 5 J K, a 6H or QH starter gets me enough, and several other shots get me at least to within three. Leading the 4 there's about a 16.5% chance of surviving the pegging. All told, I reckon that the flush has 5% winning chances on average. 5-J-Q-K has half that. Although it gets enough on any 5, Q or K cut (remember a J loses instantly!), it only gives me about a 10% chance of surviving the pegging leading a ten-card. It's the flush for me!

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.