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Dan Barlow:

Unless it's later in the game than this, I don't throw away more than two points out of fear of giving up a big crib. I need some points here anyway, if I'm to get the skunk, so I'll toss 6-7 and cut a K. My intuition tells me dealer tossed 10-J.

DeLynn Colvert:

A good crib gets your opponent across the skunk line for sure, and could even lead to a loss. But, when in doubt, I play aggressively. I would keep the 2-3-K-K. You have a ton of winners: any ten-card, a 5, or a 2 or 3.

George Rasmussen:

I like the fact that dealer is short at 64*. I also like a 19 point lead. On the first game of the qualifying round most anywhere, I would play defense given these two situations. And I would discard the safest two possible, which are 6-K, although I lose some pegging potential in retaining that 7. The 7 is a more dangerous card to opponent crib when playing defense. Now if this were the last game of the qualifying round, and I needed a skunk win to qualify, I would go with the offensive, and retain 2-3-K-K and toss 6-7 to pone's crib.

Michael Schell:

A reminder: in tournaments like this, a normal win is two game points, while a skunk gets you three game points. Since the first tiebreaker for playoff qualification is games won, a normal win is effectively worth a trifle more than two game points relative to a skunk.

For purposes of evaluating skunks, the leader's positional holes are the usual 18, 44, 70 and 96, while the trailer's positional holes are exactly 30 points behind the normal ones. Thus dealer's positional hole for crossing the skunk line is 66. Even if I made it to 96* here, overcoming my own three point positional deficit for a skunk, dealer would only have to make up two points himself, something made easier if I throw him something as loose as 6-7. That being the case, I see no reason to jeopardize a normal win too, so I'll break up my 2-3-K-K. I kind of like keeping 2-3-6-K here, eschewing the 6-K toss for the slightly more dangerous 7-K, but retaining hopes of pegging four points if dealer's first two plays are ten-cards. That gives me decent forward chances if I also get a cut for six or seven points.

Phyllis Schmidt:

What can I say? I'm the kind to gamble with 6-7, hoping for a 3 or a picture card.

Peter Setian:

All things considered, I would break the hand and toss 7-K, mainly because if I catch an eight or nine point hand holding 2-3-K-K that's still not enough for a decent dealing position (I would need to catch the full twelve points). As far as a skunk? Well, everything would have to work out right. Throwing 6-7 could actually help the opponent avoid a skunk (one never knows). Either toss can still provide a skunk, but I would stick with 7-K for a better chance at the game itself.

HALSCRIB:

The game probably will be over in four deals, or possibly three. The likelihood of a loss on the third deal is less than 5%, and the probability of a skunk on the fourth deal is less than 2%. Although the 6-7 toss looks dangerous, I estimate that it would only add a couple percent to my losing chances if the game goes four more deals, while significantly increasing my chances of winning in three deals, skunk or no. A crucial factor here is the improved shot at going out in three deals by holding 2-3-K-K and cutting myself a twelve point hand. That more than offsets the increased chance that my opponent will go out in four deals by my tossing 6-7:

		3rd Deal			4th Deal
Hand	Toss	Skunk	Win		Loss	Win
2-3-K-K	6-7	18%	36%		16%	63%
2-3-6-7	K-K	12%	26%		20%	61%
2-3-6-K	7-K	12%	20%		18%	65%
2-3-7-K	6-K	12%	20%		18%	65%

In this position, I would play offense and discard 6-7 to maximize my skunk win chances on the third deal.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.