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Dan Barlow:

If I lead the 7, and dealer plays an 8, it won't be pleasant. If I lead the J, the one card I don't want dealer to play is a 6. The difference is, dealer will strive to play an 8 if I lead a 7, but he has no idea a 6 will make me uncomfortable if I lead the J. The possibility that he has two 5s, which would result in big pegging on my part clinches it: I lead the J.

DeLynn Colvert:

With a ten point hand, I would lead the J, hoping for a possible 5-5-5-5 pegging sequence and a 15 point peg job. If your opponent plays a 6 or 7, you are in a world of hurt, but take a pair of 7s (God forbid).

George Rasmussen:

Dealer is short dealing at 62*. I like my position and don't want to get trapped in pegging runs. Lead one of those 5s. The only escape card in this hand is the J. Keep it until you have to drop it. The most likely thing that will happen on your 5 lead is for dealer to score 15-2. Few folks will pair the 5 when led. If your opponent does pair the 5 lead, it might be an enticement for you to take the 15-8, and you cannot afford to take the chance on giving up the fourth 5 for twelve points.

Keep your opponent at a disadvantage by playing board position wisely.

Michael Schell:

The normal play with 5-5-mid-x is to lead from strength, which means leading the ten-card. This way you're facing only five immediate losers, two of which can be safely retaliated on. Statistically this trumps the awkwardness of being left with a bunched up holding when the mid-card is a 6 or 7. However with a positional advantage of +14 to -8 before the deal, and holding a hand worth two points more than average, the appropriate strategy here is prevent defense. Outpegging dealer or shutting his pegging down entirely is not as important as preventing a big peg. That being the case, the right lead is the 7, more likely to give up a quick score, but leaving you with the better spaced 5-5-J. Note the similarity with the June 2005 problem, where I led the 6 from 5-6-Q-Q in a prevent defense situation.

On dealer's 8 reply, play the J. This will leave you with the vulnerable-looking 5-5, but by making the count 25, you'll probably drive out a lone 6, reducing the likelihood that you'll get trapped into a run on the second play series.

Leading a 5 would be a reasonable prevent defense maneuver if dealer was further back or if the starter wasn't a ten-card, but it looks too loose to me with a matching cut and dealer starting only eight points out of position.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I lead the 7, then try to play away on the next card with a 5. If not, I can play the J.

Peter Setian:

I would lead the 7. Middle cards could be played by dealer for 15-2 and 31-2 like this:

⁷  _8 (15-2)  ^J  _6 (31-2)

But if that happens, the crib could easily be minimal.

HALSCRIB:

Before the cut, my winning chances were about 77% as dealer four deals hence, with just enough points to count out. The favorable cut has increased my winning chances to about 81% with three holes to spare. I calculate that opponent will be at hole 112 on average at the end of the game.

I'm concerned about giving up a big score if I lead the J and get trapped with the inflexible 5-5-7. Still, leading a 5 would play into dealer's hand if he holds something like x-x-x-x (with a potential 16-point hand). I calculate that my winning chances are best leading the 7, dropping by .5% leading the J and by 1.5% leading a 5. Based on my this, I will lead the 7.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.