hide answers

Dan Barlow:

I lead the 2. I score if dealer plays an 8, 9, or any ten-card. Leading the 3 allows scoring as well, but if dealer pairs my 3, he will score first on any run that develops. If there's going to be a run (say dealer is holding 2-3-4-4), I want to score first, because he will probably score last. Leading the 2 lets me play the 5 if dealer pairs, and I should score first on a run.

John Chambers:

In this situation I would lead the 3. There's an old cribbage saying that goes: see one, play one. But that's not the only reason. If your opponent makes the count 10, 11 or 13 you have the cards to make a 15-2.

DeLynn Colvert:

I always lead the 2 with a 5 in the hand, as a 3 lead will force dealer's 5 off the play. I want to entice (and pair) a 5.

George Rasmussen:

With dealer at 24*, I like my position very much. The cut of the 3 gives me twelve points. I like to lead the 3 in this case with one on the deck. The odds are slightly in favor of that lead since two 3s are accounted for. The score of the hand is going to put me in hole 46* to deal, even without pegging. I also like the psychology of playing that 3 at this point on the board. Dealer might think I am holding 3-3-4-5 or some similar combination and in many cases will not pair the 3 even though holding one. I will just play the numbers in this case as I like where I was at start of hand and where the 12 points put me.

Michael Schell:

The 2 is ordinarily the right lead from 2-3-4-5. Although this hand presents a conflict between two good guidelines (lead the higher card from a magic five and lead from the end of a four-card run), the latter wins out for two tactical reasons:

• With a 5 in your hand, there's less motivation to lead the higher card of a magic five, since this is ordinarily done to forestall a 5 (or 6) reply
• If the 2 lead is paired, you can safely break with the 5 (or egg on dealer with the 3 if you choose), whereas if the 3 lead is paired, you're pretty much screwed if you want to break contact

In a desperation defense situation, where I can't afford to give up two pegs (such as with dealer at 118* or 119*), I'd lead the matched 3 to minimize the immediate losers. But that's not the case here. I'll go for the normal 2.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I lead the 3. There are a lot of chances for a 15-2 on dealer's reply. But if he matches my 3, I'd play the 2 next.

Peter Setian:

Even though a 3 is cut, I would lead the 2 in this decent position. For the simple fact that in case your 2 lead is paired, you can temporarily get out of a possible run by responding with the 5. And, if you're not paired, you have the best shot at making a safe 15-2 play next.

HALSCRIB:

Before the cut my winning chances were about 60%. After the 3 cut gives me a cool dozen points, it's increased to about 63% if I make the strategic choice of the 3 lead. The humans will kvetch about getting trapped into run situations, but why should I mind that in this position? The one thing I don't want is to be paired without any retaliation, and that's least likely to happen dropping the percentage 3. Did I just say "cool" and "kvetch" aloud?

Click here for a guide to cribbage notation and symbols.

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.