Score 57*-52. You dealt yourself 3
8
9
Q
Q
K
and tossed the 8-9. Pone cuts the
A
and leads the 3 .
What's your play? |
hide answers
Dan Barlow:
If dealer has 3-3-4-8, and I pair, it's a
four-point swing in his favor. If he has A-2-3-J, and
I pair, it's a four-point swing in my favor (the two I gain
plus the two he would have gained if I'd played a Q).
Since a 3 is a good lead from many holdings (not just
a pair), and since the chances that there are three 3s
in play are less than 50%, and since I was hoping to move about 20
holes on this deal but now realize I'm in danger of moving about
six, I take the gamble and pair. I want those two holes. Wish me
luck.
John Chambers:
In this situation I would play a Q. You're between
a rock and a hard place. I would not play the 3
because your opponent may need to peg and may have another 3.
Because I have two Qs it's less likely your opponent
has a Q than a K. Then you just have
to hope that your opponent doesn't have a good hand to get into
position.
DeLynn Colvert:
This is a board position play. I would pair the 3,
and hope to pair a Q and K also. I am
in a "go" mode.
George Rasmussen:
Opponent needs 18 points out of this hand (score and pegging) to
have minimal position in that Third Street critical position zone.
I dealt myself a garbage hand, and don't like the
A
as a starter card, as it doesn't add value to my hand or seem to be
of benefit to my crib discard of 8-9. So I will play
maximum defense in an attempt to keep opponent as short as possible
for next deal. That means that I will play my K on
the 3 lead. I don't like making the count 13 on a
trey lead, but I'd sooner give up two points here than consider the
alternatives. I can't chance giving up six points by pairing the
opening lead. I'll be anxious to dump my 3 somewhere
where it looks reasonably safe to do so. By holding the Q-Q
intact, I just might pick up a couple of pegs and last card at the
end of play.
Michael Schell:
I start the deal +13 to pone's -8. That ordinarily calls for
caution, but I appear to be in trouble on offense following the cut.
The good news is that pone's 3 lead doesn't repudiate
the possibility of catching a 7 in the crib. Since
I'm guaranteed three points (two in the hand, plus last card or a
go), I'll at least be in marginal position next deal at 60. Taking a
naked pair (where I can't retaliate on a triple) seems too loose
with an A starter giving pone a possible 16 hand.
The next question is whether to save the Q-Q or
Q-K for last. Generally the odds favor saving
touching cards over a pair, the theory being you'll catch more runs
over time this way, more than offsetting the 20-3s you'll score
against pone's four low cards and the occasional lucky triple of
pone's Q. I'll be interested in the bot's opinion:
does the fact that Q-K is an edge combination weigh
in favor of keeping the pair, or is it so unlikely that I'll get to
triple pone's Q (as opposed to her 10
or J) that keeping touching cards is still best?
While I wait for HALSCRIB to chime in, I'm going to drop the Q.
This might miss a 20-3 against four low cards, but I figure if that
happens, there's a very good chance of catching a stray mid-card or
10 in the crib, making up for the lost offense.
Meanwhile I keep open the possibility of:
3 Q Q (23-2) 3 2 (28-1)  Q J K (30-4)
I'm going to assume that a flush fake with 3-Q
would be more plausible than a flush fake with Q-K,
so I have a microscopic preference for the Q
over the Q.
Phyllis Schmidt:
I'm playing my K. My point lead is too small, plus
I don't have enough points in my hand to give my opponent six points
if he has another 3.
Peter Setian:
No question in this position — with
the garbage hand and no great expectations in the crib, I have to
play as defensive as possible. I would play a Q.
HALSCRIB:
I was about a 65% favorite to win until that A cut
came along. Left to my druthers I'd pair the 3 to
maintain at least a bit of an offensive pad. My creator shakes his
head at this though, and seems to be doing a "HAL" number of a
different sort on me, so that if you ask me again in a month, I
might well tell you I'd drop the K instead. I can at
least weigh in on that tactical point: you'll score
¼ point more holding the
Q-Q for last than you will holding the Q-K.
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Panelists
Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage
Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage
strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and
can be seen on the
ACC Web site.
He also provides strategy tips at
MSN
Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at
The Cribbage Bookstore.
John Chambers was one of the original founding
members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major
tournaments, and author of
Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual
tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer
Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.
DeLynn Colvert (1931–2019) is the highest rated tournament player in the history of organized cribbage. He was a five-time National Champion, author of
Play Winning Cribbage, longtime editor of the monthly magazine Cribbage World,
and the ACC's only Life Master - Seven Stars. He also directed two annual tournaments in Missoula, MT, served as the ACC's President, and was one of the game's most affable emissaries. It's scarcely an exaggeration to say that Colvert's career defines modern cribbage. George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington
State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on
cribbage are available on the
ACC Web site.
Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.
Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been
playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a
Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC
Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30
tournaments a year.
Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has
been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has
won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays
in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of
Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in
Grass Roots Club #72.
HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer
cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis
version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts
have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the
HALSCRIB home page.
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