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Dan Barlow:

I'm almost certain to win if I save 7-7-7-9 and cut an 8, but that's a 1 in 10 chance. Then again, the advantage of saving 2-7-7-7 is that a 6 might be cut, and that's also a 1 in 10 chance. In the end, I think any cut that gives me a dozen (A, 6, 7 or 8) gives me a reasonable shot at winning, and since the cut may not help me at all, I ignore offense and toss 9-K, which may help me win even without a cut, by blanking dealer's crib.

John Chambers:

Keep 7-7-7-9. Even if a 6 is cut you will still get to hole 93 without any pegging.

DeLynn Colvert:

I keep 7-7-7-9, and lead a 7, taking a run of three if an 8 is played. Reason: the run of three on peg is possible if cut is missed, and I need to score here. I'm in go mode.

George Rasmussen:

I like to retain 2-7-7-7 in this case for multiple reasons. First, it gives me a discard of 9-K with dealer at hole 81*. Dealer is short and I would like to get 12 points. I don't like holding 7-7-7-9. Starter cards that give 12 or more are A-A-A-A, 7 or 8-8-8-8. That's a total of nine cards if available. Holding 2-7-7-7, I can count 12 with a cut of A-A-A-A, 6-6-6-6, 7, and 8-8-8-8. That's thirteen cards if available that would give me that dozen. So I increase my chances of getting the 12 to get into the Fourth Street critical position zone by holding 2-7-7-7, and my discard choice has an average of less than four points. 9-K compared to 2-K is considerably safer to opponent's crib. If the starter card gives me the 12 points, I lead a 7, holding the deuce for an escape card. If the starter card is of no help, I lead the deuce as I may score a 15-2, and I could catch a 7 at some point in the pegging game.

Michael Schell:

I start the deal -1 to dealer's +11. I need offense, which ordinarily argues for the obvious 7-7-7-9. But 2-7-7-7 gives me an extra shot at the twelve points I need to get past the Fourth Street positional hole (the A, 7 and 8 are good either way, but 2-7-7-7 converts on the 6 too). I'll go for that here, sacrificing the extra nine points I get on an 8 cut. Note the similarity with an endgame specific count situation as pone.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I keep 2-7-7-7, mainly for the better defense with the 9-K toss.

Peter Setian:

I would throw 9-K. A 12 point hand will put me in a good dealing position. I'd rather keep the deuce for an extra 12-point cut card (a 6 cut), and forfeit the possible 21 point hand. Additionally, in case the dealer gets a huge hand, the 9-K toss is statistically a safer throw to the crib than 2-K.

HALSCRIB:

I estimate that an endgame pegging duel is probable if average hands and pegging prevail for both players two deals hence. 2-7-7-7 is the right keep, adding a few percent to my winning chances thanks to the extra hit of an A, in addition to a 6 or 8 (or the last 7). Any of those should make me a strong favourite, so I really don't need the extra advantage from a triple run. Also if I keep 7-7-7-9 and don't cut an 8, dealer will peg a little more on average and earn a little more in the crib on average. That will diminish my (admittedly slight) back-end chances, and increase the chance that dealer gets enough offense to go out in three counts, making it irrelevant how much I score here.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.