You're dealer at 96*-88: What do you keep from A 4 7 7 9 Q?

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Dan Barlow:

The flush doesn't have much potential, so I'm deciding between tossing A-4 or 4-Q. It would be nice to have the A if a 7 gets cut, but that's a 1-in-20 chance. Unless the cut is an 8, I'm going to need a good crib to get into advantageous position, so I toss the A-4.

John Chambers:

You have a number of choices. Being the dealer, you would ideally try to keep your points and also try to help your crib. Below are your choices:

1. You keep 7 7 9 Q and discard A 4
2. You keep 4 7 9 Q and discard A 7
3. You keep A 7 7 9 and discard 4 Q

I wouldn't do #1 because you are cutting down your hand and there's no guarantee about the crib. So it's between #2 and #3. With the 3rd choice you have six cards that will give at least 6 points on the cut, and two cuts that will give you at least 12 points. With the 2nd choice you have nine cards that will give you at least 6 points but none that will give you over 9 points. I would play the second choice not only because of the number of cuts that will help but because a flush is a better pegging hand, and I like the A-7 discard better than the 4-Q.

DeLynn Colvert:

I would keep the diamond flush since it has the 7-4 defensive combo for stopping pone's pegging.

George Rasmussen:

I have minimum position on Fourth Street, and opponent at 88 will likely have similar position on the next deal. I can't play the four-point flush in this case. Retaining 4 7 9 Q is not an attractive choice as the A-7 discard with me retaining another 7 has reduced chances of working for points in the crib. Although A-4-7-7 offers some pegging opportunities, I'm too far out to seriously consider pegs, and I don't want to "bless" my crib with 9-Q. That leaves the 7-7 as my discard. This has an increased chance to work in the crib as I'm holding 7-7-9. The mathematical probabilities make it more likely that if opponent has an 8 it will be tossed to my crib (as I have two cards below and one card above that 8). By the way, the averages to dealer's crib favor the 7-7 as well, at 5.87 points. A-4 averages 5.42, A-7 hits the numbers at 4.05, and that lousy 9-Q averages a mere 2.99 on dealer's side of the board. Play the numbers!

Michael Schell:

I start out exactly at the positional hole, with pone eight holes back. Unfortunately my starting six are a sorry sight, probably three points below average hand/crib combined potential. Note that if I ignore my position, pone is effectively +2 for her own front-end chances. Looking at it that way, I might be better off de-emphasizing offense and my own front-end chances in favor of all-out defense, trying to stuff my opponent down the stretch and win on the back end two deals hence. Ideally, of course, I'd like to find a balance between these approaches.

For pure defense, the 4-7-9-Q flush is attractive. There's a good magic eleven in the 4-7, no little cards to get caught and tripled, and the 7-9 combo gives me a comfortable reply to a low card lead. The only pone combination that could be troublesome is two mid-cards (I could get caught with 7-9 on the second play series), but in that event, my offensive chances are probably small anyway, as the only plausible crib windfall I'd see here would be tossing 7-7 and catching a couple mid-cards. This seems a reasonable alternative, in fact, as A-4-9-Q is fairly save defensively (though holding both an A and a 4 makes me nervous). The third possibility I see is A-7-7-9, again hoping for an offensive windfall on an 8 cut, or perhaps the catch of a desperate 5 tossed to the crib, coupled with pegging against pone's mid-cards. But an 8 cut to 7-7 in the crib has potential too, and I'm guessing this is an inferior option to the first two, as are A-4-7-7 and 7-7-9-Q.

I'm not sure how I'd play this over the board. It might depend on my opponent. Against a conservative player, I'd probably go for the defensive approach (4 7 9 Q) and hope she falls short on her three counts, a real possibility if she breaks up her hand to avoid sending me a loose toss when I'm already at 96*. Against a more aggressive player, I might try A-4-9-Q, hoping to catch some mid-cards in the crib and peg a little, to to maximize my front-end chances.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I'm going to do this a bit different and keep 7-7-9-Q. This gives me two points in the hand, and A-4 would give me two points minimum in crib. I'll need a lot of luck with these poor cards at 96*.

Peter Setian:

I would keep A-4-9-Q. The only regret I would have is if an 8 is cut and no middle cards (6 through 9) were thrown in the crib. If an A or 8 are not cut, chances are that I'd have to hold the pone back from any pegging points. A-4-9-Q gives me a much better variety for that job than 7-7-9-Q or A-7-7-9.

HALSCRIB:

The humans and I know that a win in this game is possible by counting out on the next deal, which I estimate to be about a 10% chance, given my below average hand. It's more likely that the game will end on my next deal, so I have to balance the risk of pone's pegging on this hand (over which I have some control), while not neglecting my hand and crib. This will maximize my chances of counting out, just in case pone gets above average hands (over which I have no control).

By my numbers, the four reasonable choices all rank within a couple percent of each other. Still, A-4-9-Q is the best of the lot. The 7-7 in the crib could catch a windfall — with pone back at 88, she'll have less latitude than you might think for breaking up her hand to play defense, and there's a good chance of catching a 12 or 16 point crib, enough to get me in good position even a two-point hand and minimal pegging. And the A-4-9-Q has both offensive and defensive pegging potential, which I can throttle based on clues such as the starter and pone's first couple of cards. The other choices don't give me as much flexibility (for example, the flush pretty much commits me to playing defensively and hoping my opponent falls short on her three counts).

Hand	Toss	Win
4 7 9 Q	A 7	65.5%
A 7 7 9	4 Q	66.4%
A 4 9 Q	7 7	67.8%
A 4 7 7	9 Q	65.6%

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.