At 29*-23 you deal yourself 4 5 6 9 10 Q. Do you keep the flush or the run?

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Dan Barlow:

The flush will be better on more cuts, but not much better. 4-5-6-Q is much better on a couple cuts, and allows me to toss myself 9-10, which could become a double run. Tossing 4-6 doesn't thrill me. Opponent won't be tossing me a 5. And the only time a 5 gets cut is when it's my opponent's deal.

DeLynn Colvert:

I keep the 4-5-6-Q. Otherwise I would throw a 4-6 to my own crib, and it's not likely I will get a 5 from my opponent.

George Rasmussen:

I frequently retain a flush, as it often provides pegging opportunities not present with other cards, and is often greater in value without the starter card. In the case of 5 9 10 Q, there is little offered as to pegging opportunity. In addition, holding the flush causes me to discard 4-6 to crib while holding a 5 spot in the hand. That's not a good choice. A score of eight points without the starter card is not enough in this case to retain the flush, so it is to my advantage to retain 4 5 6 Q for seven points and discard 9 10 to my own crib.

Michael Schell:

I start the deal +11 to pone's -11, so balanced play (cautious offense) is called for, or perhaps even a slight tilt toward defense given my above-average cards. Applying my discarding method over the board, I'd rank the candidates as follows:

Keep	Toss	Hand	Own Crib	Total
4-5-6-Q	9-10	7.0	4.3	11.3
5-9-10-Q flush	4-6	7.5	3.9	11.4

Note that in my estimate, I penalize the flush half a point since that breaks up a run. Although the flush would appear to return a little more between hand and crib, I'm sure that the pegging potential of 4-5-6-Q will easily offset that. Against two ten-cards, you'll peg four points on the first play series. Against a 7 or 8 lead, you have a choice between egging on with the 6 or dropping the Q and getting a likely 31-2 on your next card.

This seems to be borne out by the "real" numbers. Note that the the remarkable difference in pegging potential between 4-5-6-x and 5-9-10-Q is basically another manifestation of the 1–1½ point difference typical between 3/1 and 1/3 hand distributions:

Keep	Toss		Average   hand		Own crib:				Expected    average		Pegging (Mueller):
					Static	Delta	Dynamic				Net	(pone/dealer)
4-5-6-Q	9-10		9.72		4.29	-0.11	4.18		13.90		+2.3	(1.4/3.7)
5-9-10-Q flush	4-6		10.50		3.85	-0.17	3.68		14.18		+0.9	(1.7/2.6)

Phyllis Schmidt:

Keep 4-5-6-Q. Throw 9-10 to the crib. Flushes are great and can be very rewarding, but they also can give you false hope.

Peter Setian:

I would keep the 4-5-6-Q and toss 9-10. Both choices can equally defend pegging. The only argument for keeping the flush would be if you badly needed a skunk, and hence going for the 5 cut.

HALSCRIB:

I'll make it unanimous. Optimal (balanced) play is my strategy here, and 4-5-6-Q maximizes my net scoring. The pegging potential in 4-5-6-Q, one of the best pegging hands for dealer, more than compensates for the point I take out of my hand by eschewing the flush. My winning chances with this keep are about 58%.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.