Ask the experts, January 2007

You're pone at 13-7* against a championship-caliber player. You're dealt A-3-7-8-8-10. What do you toss to your opponent's crib?

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Dan Barlow:

If I toss A-3 or 3-10 I'll cut a 2. Happens every time. And I don't want to cut a 2. If I toss A-10 I'll cut a 4. Which helps me. Hope it helps me more than it helps dealer.

DeLynn Colvert:

I toss the 3-10. The A will help my hand if a 6 is cut, and it is too early to be too picky. You are six ahead, but you should play offense to keep up the advantage.

George Rasmussen:

If you were to play defense entirely on this hand, the safest discard to opponent crib would be 7-10. Am not going to do that as like the potential of the 7-8-8 which is open on both ends. Then it comes down to A-10 with an average of 4.54 or 3-10 with an average of 4.58. Ask me on what basis have these averages been calculated. Since the averages are very close (only .36 difference) I like to retain the A with the middle cards and also like to lead the A against those mid cards. Some very interesting pegging opportunities emerge if dealer is holding middle cards. If wanting to play defense on pegging keep the A as an escape card and play one of those 8s on the opening lead. Toss 3-10 to opponent crib.

Michael Schell:

I actually like the unorthodox 3-7-8-8 here to maximize my chances of getting a few points past the positional hole. A-7-8-8 is what I'd pick in most normal situations so that I can get a 15-2 on a paired 7 lead. But I expect my opponent, who is good, to play off here. The 3 gives me a couple extra points on a 5 cut. Tossing A-3 seems a little loose even with dealer -11 at the start of the hand.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I'll just toss 3-10. Keep the maximum points, and hope a 2 or 5 doesn't get cut to hurt you.

Peter Setian:

I would make the more conservative discard of A-10. I don't need a 16 point hand for decent dealing position. 10–12 points is good enough.

HALSCRIB:

The 7-10 is the best toss for minimizing dealer's score but it is far too early to play all-out defence. How am I supposed to know my opponent is "championship-calibre"? Is it the American accent? Instead I'll base my decision on the cards and board position, and thus will press ahead with A-7-8-8, which maximizes my winning chances at about 55.5%. Keeping 3-7-8-8 is almost as good at about 55.0% These winning chances take into account the probability of pegging out by dealer or myself nine deals hence.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

DeLynn Colvert (1931–2019) is the highest rated tournament player in the history of organized cribbage. He was a five-time National Champion, author of Play Winning Cribbage, longtime editor of the monthly magazine Cribbage World, and the ACC's only Life Master - Seven Stars. He also directed two annual tournaments in Missoula, MT, served as the ACC's President, and was one of the game's most affable emissaries. It's scarcely an exaggeration to say that Colvert's career defines modern cribbage.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.


 
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