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Dan Barlow:

I don't see dealer failing to move 11, especially when I'm putting something decent into his crib. I suppose I'd keep 5-8-9-9. The play would go:

⁸  _J  ⁵  _{2  4 (29-1)}    ⁹  _9 (18-2)  ^9 (27-7)

If the cut was a 7, I've won. If it wasn't, that 2-3 I tossed him will probably end it.

DeLynn Colvert:

I am in deep doo-doo. About all I can do is play desperation defense, and discard the 3-9. The 2-9 gives opponent an extra card to score with a 4 cut. The 3-9 is an all or nothing throw.

George Rasmussen:

Since eleven points or more would put me out with first count, I will retain 3-8-9-9 and discard 2-5. If I get a 7 or 10 cut to give me eight points or more, I will lead the 3. If not I will lead the 8. The 9 is also a lead possibility if the starter card is not to my benefit, as some folks will drop a 3 on the 9 believing that if you had a 3 then you would have led it. Remember if I cannot get out, I've got to get close so pegging will win the game next deal. If I was playing defense on this hand, I would toss the 2-9 as the safest combination. I don't believe I can win this game if I play defense and retain 3-5-8-9.

Dealer is 18 points out. I hope my 2-5 gives him no more than four points in the crib.

Michael Schell:

A miracle crib to get back into the game, and then I get dealt this guff? Well that's cribbage for you. It seems I basically have three plays to choose from:

• The 8-9-9 combination gets me to the stinkhole on a 7 cut and within three on a 10 cut. Otherwise a 6 or 9 cut gets me within five, and a couple of other cuts get me around there as well depending on which fourth card I've retained. These aren't great odds, and most of these scenarios require me to peg a little here just to get within reasonable pegging range as dealer next hand. Meanwhile I've tossed either 2-3 or something with a 5 in it, and I've left myself a not very impressive offensive pegging hand
• 2-3-5-8 gets me within three on a 2 or 4 cut and within five on most other cuts. The idea here is to peg three points against dealer's ten-cards, then peg out next deal. 9-9 is not a good defensive toss, but if I'm lucky enough that dealer didn't throw mid-cards (and granted, I'm hoping for ten-cards in the pegging, so this may be a stretch), then that pair might "miss" the other three cards entirely, giving me a chance to peg out next deal from within three. This seems a little more realistic to me than going with 8-9-9, even though I have no chances for a ten point hand
• The alternative is a defensive play with 2-5-8-9 or 3-5-8-9. I can tell you I've often stumbled as dealer from 103*, so there's no reason that can't happen to my opponent once in a while too. 3-9 in dealer's crib averages about 4.9 points, and 2-9 4.7 points. Either one is a couple points better than the alternatives. But this largely gives up on winning going forward. I have one or two shots at six or seven points, and lack a magic five for offensive pegging

Computer playouts with a digital player as skilled as HALSCRIB would be the best way to settle whether the odds favor offense or defense here. But the bots have taught me that experts have traditionally undervalued aggressive play in borderline situations like this. I'm guessing that 2-3-5-8, likely to fetch at least six points, coupled with modest pegging here, is the best way to go.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I'll keep 2-5-8-9. I can only hold two points, so I'm going to throw the least damaging cards. Who knows? Dealer may fall short. I hope to peg a few myself, count a few, and live to live to play another hand close enough to peg out.

Peter Setian:

I would keep 2-3-5-8 (over 2-3-9-9 as the second choice). My goal is to deal next, from no more than three points out, and hope it becomes a pegging game (at all cost). Keeping 2-3-5-8 gives me more response cards to peg, with the 3 lead. The hand has many cuts to a 7‒8 point hand and many more for a six point hand (with prayers for pegging at least two points). So anything but a 6 or 9 cut gives me a decent shot at my goal, as long as the opponents crib doesn't get too large with nearby cuts.

HALSCRIB:

Some humans may go for the biggest possible hand. Is that desperation setting in? Well, I don't feel desperation or any other emotion, so I'm just going to crunch some numbers like always. And the number tell me that although I'm unlikely to win this deal or next, going for offense is still more promising than trying all-out defense in the hopes that opponent won't manage to score 18 points in three hands. Which keep gives me the best offensive chances?

Keep	Toss		Average   hand	Pone    Pegging	Offense  Value
2-3-5-8	9-9		5.70	2.02	7.72
2-8-9-9	3-5		4.48	1.37	5.85
5-8-9-9	2-3		5.17	1.57	6.74

On average I will score one more point keeping 2-3-5-8 instead of 5-8-9-9. In fact I'll score almost eight points on average, enough to get me within three points. If dealer's a little short despite the 9-9 toss, there's a very reasonable chance of pegging out to win next deal.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.