Ask the experts, June 2007

First of a three-part question: You're pone, trailing 115-117*. You're dealt A-6-8-9-Q-K and toss Q-K. Lucky for you the cut is a 10. What's your lead?

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Dan Barlow:

If dealer needed two holes, the A would be obvious. I'm not sure I want to leave myself with 6-8-9, however, as I might be unable to avoid a run. I think I'll lead the 8, and play the A if dealer pegs on the 8.

John Chambers:

Your opponent has four points to go. If he had only two, I would say lead the A. But if you lead the A in this position and he plays a middle card, you are stuck. No matter what you do it's a risk. I would lead the 6. If a potential pegging problems arises you have the A as an out card.

DeLynn Colvert:

With dealer needing only two scores (besides the guaranteed last card), I'm going to play percentages every step of the way and lead the A.

George Rasmussen:

When holding an A or 2 with three middle cards, the lead should be the small card. If dealer has middle cards, non-dealer gains a pegging advantage in a high percentage of cases by leading the small card. If dealer has small cards, non-dealer has led the single small card that would likely give dealer pegging coups later in play. Try this approach if you're not accustomed to playing mid-card hands this way, you'll like it!

Michael Schell:

With dealer four holes back, the bots have taught me that you're best off just leading the low card, and hoping for the best. Obviously the A is the safest card in the short-term, with only three losers, compared to six or seven for one of the mid-cards. And if dealer does have an A, he'll probably pair mine whenever I play it. A subtle factor weighing in favor of the A lead is that it "flips" the order of certain mid-card sequences, so that if you do get trapped, and can manage to score a 15-2 with your first mid-card, you might peg out before dealer can score twice:

A  8  6 (15-2)  7 (22-3)  9 (31-6)

Compared to something like this:

8  7 (15-2)  9 (24-3)  6 (30-4)

It's because of scenarios like this that some authorities, such as Ras, always like to lead the low-card from these kinds of 1/3 lo-mid hands.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I lead the 8. If opponent plays a 7 for 15-2, I'll play away with the A.

Peter Setian:

Hmm. With the dealer needing four points, I'd probably still lead the A. The dealer may not automatically pair it, since I'm six points out. I just hope he/she doesn't play a 7 next.

HALSCRIB:

I lead the A. My overall losing chances with this lead is about 1 in 3, whereas the others it's about 50-50. Yes, it's awkward on a 7 reply, but in this position dealer often holds an unconventional hand, and pretty much anything you play can be paired, the consequences of which are likely to be fatal.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

DeLynn Colvert (1931–2019) is the highest rated tournament player in the history of organized cribbage. He was a five-time National Champion, author of Play Winning Cribbage, longtime editor of the monthly magazine Cribbage World, and the ACC's only Life Master - Seven Stars. He also directed two annual tournaments in Missoula, MT, served as the ACC's President, and was one of the game's most affable emissaries. It's scarcely an exaggeration to say that Colvert's career defines modern cribbage.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.


 
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