Ask the experts, August 2007

DEALER  (117*):
Opponent
 
 

?-?-2-K  (?-?)
  crib:   ?-?
Q-K		 cut:  10          
play:
   A  K  6  2  ?    
A-6-8-9  (Q-K)
 
   
PONE  (115):
You
 		  
Third of a three-part question: You're pone, trailing 115-117*. You're dealt A-6-8-9-Q-K, toss Q-K, and cut a 10. You lead your A. Dealer replies with a K. You then play your 6 and dealer drops a 2. What's your next play?

hide answers

Dan Barlow:

If dealer has two more deuces I should play the 9. If he has a 4 and a higher card, I should play the 9. If dealer will say go no matter what I play, then I have to worry that he'll make a run with my last card. If I have an 8 he'll need 6-7, 7-9 or 9-10. If I have a 9, he'll need 7-8, 8-10 or 10-J. He's more likely to have one of the latter three combinations (especially since he didn't pair my 6), so I should play the 9. However: If dealer can play one card on my card, getting a go, I can lose if he can pair or score 15-2 on my last card. In this case I should play the 8 now, as he's more likely to have a 7 or 8 than a 6 or 9. Nonetheless, I think the 9 is a slightly better play here.

John Chambers:

I still have 8-9 remaining in my hand. My opponent has already played a K and 2, so I have to suspect that he could have an A, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 8 in his hand and more than likely a 3. Why an 8? Because his hand could be 2-5-8-K. That being the case I would play the 8 so he doesn't get to pair up at the end.

DeLynn Colvert:

I'm dropping the 8. If dealer has a low card, my 9 lead will be safer than my 8 lead, since dealer didn't pair my 6.

George Rasmussen:

After seeing the K and 2 of dealer's hand, it appears most likely that a 3 would be present. Since I have an 8 or 9 to play, I will make the count 27 with the play of the 8. I will give up a go most often in this case rather than 31-2. A few pegs saved in this manner in games played will move some of those losses into the win column for you.

Michael Schell:

At this point I know dealer doesn't have a 6 (or an A). There's no reason he might not have a 7, 8 or 9. I can safely give up a go or a 31-2 as long as I don't give up a pair or 15 on the next card. So my thinking is that I should save my 9 to have the safest possible lead for the second play series. Playing the 8 now loses if dealer started with 2-2-2-K or 2-10-J-K, or if he has a lone 9. But these seem less likely to me than dealer having a lone 7 or 8.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I play the 8 to make the count 27, and hope he gets one go or two goes only.

Peter Setian:

I would continue the play with the 8. The chances of the dealer having two more 2s are slim. I can afford to give up a 31 count (for two points), but I need a safe final play. Since the dealer didn't pair the 6, I'd rather have the 9 left at the end, instead of the 8.

HALSCRIB:

There's not much statistical difference here: the 8 will lose about 10% of the time, whereas the 9 will lose 11%. I'll go with the 8. It doesn't matter whether I give up a go or a 31-2 here, and my 9 is a little safer as a last card. One point here is that if dealer started with 2-9-10-K, I stand to lose either way.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

DeLynn Colvert (1931–2019) is the highest rated tournament player in the history of organized cribbage. He was a five-time National Champion, author of Play Winning Cribbage, longtime editor of the monthly magazine Cribbage World, and the ACC's only Life Master - Seven Stars. He also directed two annual tournaments in Missoula, MT, served as the ACC's President, and was one of the game's most affable emissaries. It's scarcely an exaggeration to say that Colvert's career defines modern cribbage.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.


 
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