You're dealer trailing 51*-68. You tossed 2 J from 2 4 5 6 J J. Pone cuts the 4 and leads the 2. What’s your play?

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Dan Barlow:

I toss the 7s. Odds are so strongly in favor of opponent going out if I don't, that I have to keep the holding that gives me the best chance of improving my hand.

John Chambers:

If I only have seven points to go and have first count, I am going to keep A-4-J-Q. Over 30% of the deck are tenth cards. I have the four tenth cards plus an A, 4 or 5 to give me points and the game. That's 7 out of 13 ranks. I'll take those odds.

DeLynn Colvert:

Hold A-4-7-7, tossing the J-Q. You are almost certain to score on the cut card: an A, 4, 7, 8, 10, J, Q or K will give you at least six, needing a single peg to win.

Lead the 4, backed up by the 7, scoring on any face card response.

George Rasmussen:

Got to play the numbers in this case. There are 24 cards with the potential to put me out by holding A-4-J-Q. Those are A-A-A, 4-4-4, 5-5-5-5, 10-10-10-10, J-J-J, Q-Q-Q and K-K-K-K. I surely don't like sending 7-7 to dealer's crib. Even so, if I hold A-4-7-7, there are 16 cards that will put me out. Those are A-A-A, 3-3-3-3, 4-4-4, 7-7 and 8-8-8-8. It's true that any starter card of ten-point value gives me six points if I'm holding A-4-7-7. But it's difficult to peg in those final holes on Fourth Street, and there is no tomorrow. I'll go for it and retain A-4-J-Q!

Michael Schell:

Since I'm already within three point of victory whether I keep A-4-7-7 or A-4-J-Q, I'll adapt my endgame count, and only look at cuts that improve my holding. A-4-7-7 wins on an A, 3, 4, 7 or 8 cut, and gets to within one on a ten-card. That's

(16/1) + (14/2) = 23

In other words, it's about a 50-50% shot (as there are 46 possible cut cards). A-4-J-Q wins on an A, 4, 5 or ten-card, and gets within two on a right 2, 3, 6, 8 or 9. That comes out to:

(24/1) + 5/3 = almost 26

Although A-4-J-Q does a trifle better in the endgame count, chiefly due to its eight more outright winners, there are a couple of mitigating factors. First, dealer is twelve holes out, which makes him a favorite to go out, but certainly not a sure thing. If I flunk the cut, I'm more likely to survive to the next deal if I've tossed J-Q than 7-7. Second, A-4-7-7 is likely to be a better pegging hand in this situation, with my opponent expected to play desperation defense. If I lead from the magic five, dealer won't expect the 7s, and vice versa. I'm guessing that these two factors make up for the reduced number of winners, so I'm tossing J-Q, not 7-7.

Phyllis Schmidt:

A-4-7-7 and A-4-J-Q are each worth four points. I'll take my chances with A-4-J-Q, as J-Q is definitely safer in the crib than 7-7. The the only advantage in keeping J-Q is if a face card is cut.

Peter Setian:

I would toss J-Q. I'm losing out on the 5 cut, but gaining on the 3 or 8 cut.

My plan would be to peg a go (or more) with a six-point hand by leading a 7 (looking for 17 and playing the second 7 for a count of 24).

HALSCRIB:

I need to play offense here and keep the hand that maximizes my hand and pegging points. I think most of the humans will agree with me on this one. On this basis I come up with the following:

Keep	Toss	Adj. Average Hand	Off.    Pegging	Total
A-4-7-7	J-Q	5.65	1.28	6.93
A-4-J-Q	7-7	5.67	1.39	7.06

A-4-7-7 is good, but A-4-J-Q is a little better, so off go the 7s.

Note that I have a special way of calculating averages in the endgame, which takes into account that in this particular case, I can't score more than seven points.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.