hide answers

Dan Barlow:

I usually lead the 4, as it's least likely to be pegged on, but leading the 6 won't get you in much trouble.

Of course if the cut had been the right king, that would change everything...

John Chambers:

In this situation, I need 15 holes to get into average position for my three counts on Third Street. I would lead the J hoping to get some pegging holes to get me close to hole 70*.

DeLynn Colvert:

I lead the J, trading points if a 5 is played. I would also pair a 4 or 6 response, as offense at this board position will keep me close to my par holes.

George Rasmussen:

Since I have an 11 point lead and need to get well around that Third Street corner to deal, I will try to get some pegs offensively. After all, my opponent is dealing right in that Second Street critical position zone. My lead is the J, keeping 4-5-6 intact. If pone plays an A for 11, which happens frequently with the lead of the x-pointer from this hand) I will score 15-2 with the play of the 4, and 31-2 if opponent advances the count to 25. If pone plays a 5 for 15-2 on my J, I will pair the 5 and see where this goes. If pone plays a 3 on the J lead, I will play next to it with my 4. With a nine point hand, it would be great to pick up three or four pegs.

Michael Schell:

Checking the board, I'm -5 before the deal (-4 allowing for a nine point hand), whereas dealer is Even, right at the positional hole. An important factor is the unimposing K starter, which increases the chance that dealer will have a lackluster hand or crib. My best chance is on defense, so I'm going to play off with the 4.

To look at it another way, to seize the positional advantage here, must either:

• Try to get near the positional hole (70) on this deal through aggressive pegging, or
• Play defensively and hope your opponent can't quite get there with his three counts

The former approach requires pegging six points as pone. The latter approach requires shaving as little as one point off opponent's average scoring this deal and next. Which do you think is more likely?

When you have the lead, but are in poor position, while your opponent is in marginal position, the odds generally favor attacking your opponent's position over trying to improve your own.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I lead the J, hoping to get rid of the 5 early if I can, without getting trapped into any runs.

Peter Setian:

With the nine point hand, I would start play aggressively, and lead the J, prepared to take peg points whenever possible to try and deal from somewhere close to 70*. However, something like a 2 cut would have been enough me for to lead the 4 and play total defense.

HALSCRIB:

In the endgame I predict that on average I will peg out as dealer with opponent around hole 112. I could play safe and lead the 4, but in this position I will be aggressive and lead the J in the hope of improving my chances of counting out on opponent's last deal (or pegging out as dealer). The downside of this play is that I will lose about twice as many points in the pegging than I will gain. If I were a few holes back I would lead the 4, my best defensive play and also my second-best offensive play. In this question, the humans have an advantage in that their play would be guided by an assessment of the opponent's style.

Click here for a guide to cribbage notation and symbols.

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.