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Dan Barlow:

When all options are terrible, I keep my points and hope for the best. So I keep A-2-3-9 and cut a 3. Dealer tossed A-8, so I come out smelling like a rose for a change.

John Chambers:

In this position, on average, I am behind by about 11 holes. This means that on average, after my count, I would be close to where I should be for my three counts on Second Street. My opponent is only a couple of holes behind as he now deals. Before I do anything, I realize I have two goals:

• To keep my opponent from pegging and balk his crib
• To get into position for my three counts on Second Street

My choice would be to discard the 6-9. If I discard anything else I either will not have many points in my hand or else will help my opponent more than the 6-9. The 6-9 discard needs a few specific cards to help my opponent. I would keep the A-2-3-5.

DeLynn Colvert:

With first count? I keep for max here, although it's a risky play. I hold A-2-3-9, for a 12 or 14 try (and a better pegging hand). I could easily lose the game with a 4, 5 or 6 cut, but I am drawing to four known cards, and opponent has to guess at my discard.

George Rasmussen:

This is a tough place to be, as I would like ten points out of this hand and to limit crib size for dealer. I'll play A-3-5-6 and discard 2-9. No way with the cards retained that I can score those ten points although the cut of an A, 3, 5 or 9 will give me six points, a 7 will give me seven points, and the cut of a 4 or 6 provides eight points.

Michael Schell:

This is as exasperating a discarding decision as you're likely to see. At the start I'm -1. Dealer is technically +24, but could "jump" ahead to be in Third Street position by making up two points here (the next two positional holes are at 44 and 70). So ideally I need to find some extra offense while limiting dealer to average scoring at best. Unfortunately I don't have a discarding choice that fits that bill, as retaining either of my best hands requires tossing 5-6 or 6-9. Without running the numbers, I see no obvious right answer. So let's run some numbers:

Keep	Toss		Average   hand		Opponent's crib:				Expected    average		Pegging (Mueller):			Totals:
					Static	Delta	Dynamic				Net	(pone/dealer)		Net	Offense	Defense
A-2-3-5	6-9		6.89		6.26	-0.03	6.23		0.66		-0.8	(2.0/2.8)		-0.14	8.89	9.03
A-2-3-9	5-6		7.98		7.47	+0.09	7.56		0.42		-1.0	(1.7/2.7)		-0.58	9.68	10.26
A-3-5-6	2-9		5.46		4.70	-0.05	4.65		0.81		-0.7	(2.1/2.8)		0.11	7.56	7.45
A-3-5-9	2-6		4.76		4.97	-0.14	4.83		-0.07		-1.2	(1.6/2.8)		-1.27	6.36	7.63
2-3-5-6	A-9		4.33		4.55	-0.10	4.45		-0.12		+0.3	(2.9/2.6)		0.18	7.23	7.05
2-5-6-9	A-3		4.96		5.07	-0.27	4.80		0.16		-1.0	(1.9/2.9)		-0.84	6.86	7.70
3-5-6-9	A-2		4.96		5.07	-0.23	4.84		0.08		-0.9	(1.9/2.8)		-0.82	6.86	7.64

The fact that dealer is starting out two points behind the positional hole suggests that we have a little slack to work with on the defensive side, so I suspect that the edge goes to A-2-3-5, the choice I'd probably come up with over the board. However it wouldn't surprise me that doing 100 or 200 playouts from this position, that the most aggressive of all, A-2-3-9, comes away with the most wins. I'm pretty sure that the more defensive options are inferior at this score. Move pone ahead four points to 37, though, and the more balanced A-3-5-6 or 2-3-5-6 look best.

Eventually the bots will give us conclusive evidence on this kind of "play on, play off, or split the difference" question when both players are in marginal position. For now, A-2-3-5 is my low-confidence choice.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I'll keep A-3-5-6 for two points. I can't give the crib any points or cards in sequence when trailing by nine and not dealing.

Peter Setian:

I would keep A-3-5-6 to first try and somewhat hold the opponent with the 2-9 toss. At the same time, I'm keeping a little better hand than 2-3-5-6. For the A-3-5-6 hand, any cut but an 8 or ten-card is six to eight points. (Oops! Okay, a 2 is five points). Still, not a bad average.

HALSCRIB:

Yes, dealer is a little short of optimal position, but that's to go out in three counts in the end. Since I'm nine points behind, the most likely scenario is that opponent pegs out as dealer at the end of the game. For that reason, I do indeed need to play defense to improve my chances of counting out in the last hand. My way of tackling this situation mathematically (the only way I know) is to subtract dealer's pegging and expected crib from my average hand, ignoring offensive pegging. This gives me the following:

Keep	Toss		Average   hand		Opp. crib		Opp. Pegging	Defense  Value
A-2-3-5	6-9		6.89		-5.96		-2.78	-1.85
A-2-3-9	5-6		7.98		-7.53		-2.67	-2.22
A-3-5-6	2-9		5.46		-4.41		-2.80	-1.75
2-3-5-6	A-9		4.33		-4.33		-2.59	-2.59

The higher total (lowest negative number) is the best choice, leading me to go for A-3-5-6, with A-2-3-5 a close second.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.