Score 117*-106: you tossed yourself J-Q
from 2
6
7
J
Q
K .
Pone cut the 10
and leads the 2.
What’s your reply? |
hide answers
Dan Barlow:
My immediate goal is to keep him from pegging anything if he has
A-2-2-3. Thus I play the 6 or 7.
If he pegs on that, he has nowhere near thirteen points, so I'm safe
for the moment.
John Chambers:
You should try to minimize your opponent's pegging by playing the
6 so you can keep a spread of cards to play off with
and force your opponent to win with a good hand and not a gift in
pegging. You could pair the 2, but if you do, and
opponent has another 2, after the pegging opponent
will be at least at hole 112. Remember, the non-dealer's average
play points is 2.0 and his average hand is 8.0.
DeLynn Colvert:
With opponent needing 15 to win, the cut card (10)
appears not to be a biggie hand. No sense in risking the game here.
Lay off, lay off, lay off.
George Rasmussen:
My reply to the deuce lead would be to play the 7
for count of nine. Few folks will lead a 2 in
preference to a 3 if holding same. A 2
is often led from hands which contain one or middle cards (2-6-7-8,
2-6-7-9, 2-7-7-8, 2-2-6-7,
2-2-4-9, etc.). If opponent pairs my seven or scores
15-2, play the K to escape with my 2
and 6 remaining. If my assessment is correct, with
that 10 on the deck, pone cannot have enough points
to win by counting first even if I am unable to peg out safely.
Conversely if pone is holding A-2-2-3 (the 2
might be led from this hand since a pair is present) which gives 14
points with the 10 spot on the deck, all that is
needed is one peg. Why give up the peg on my first play by making
the count 12 with the K?
Michael Schell:
Ahh, yes. Play defense, or pair that 2 and try to
peg out before pone gets to count her hand. Other things being
equal, I advocate the following guidelines for endgame pegging as
dealer:
| Pone is as close as: |
Play on if you're as close as: |
| 5 holes (116) |
7 holes (114*) |
| 6 or 7 holes (114‒5) |
5 holes (116*) |
| 8 holes (113) |
4 holes (117*) |
| 9 or 10 holes (111‒2) |
3 holes (118*) |
| 11+ holes (up to 110) |
2 holes (119*) |
Based on this, I entered the deal planning to play off. Does
holding 2-6-7-K facing a 2
lead at a 2-6-7-K hand with a 10
cut showing change things? Well, not as far as I can tell. Pone's
best hand is 14 points, and there seems to be no way to stop her
from pegging at least one point with that:
2 2 (4-2) 2 (6-6) K 3 6 A (26-1)  7 (7-1)
2 K 3 (15-2) 7 2 2 (26-2) A (27-1) 6 (6-1)
2 6 2 K 3 7 A (31-2) 2 (2-1)
2 7 2 6 3 K A (31-2) 2 (2-1)
2 7 2 2 (13-2) 3 K A (27-1) 6 (6-1)
Note, though, that playing a mid-card should prevail over a 12
point hand like 2-2-3-3, 2-2-3-4,
2-2-3-10, etc. The fact that tripling pone's 2
lead doesn't let you peg out against a 14 hand, and is likely to
cost you the game against a 12 hand (it's hard to peg more than
three total), reinforces the value of the guidelines I provide
above.
Peter Setian:
I would play the 6, with the intention of easily
pairing a 7 response (15-2). It's not likely to
matter if the pone's hand contains a "middle" card, for no more than
an 11 point flush. If the pone has the typical 14 point hand of
A-2-2-3, you will not be able to stop them from
winning either way. Bottom line, I would not try to peg out by
pairing the 2 lead, and guard as much as possible
against those 12‒13 point hands.
HALSCRIB:
Whenever a player is at hole 115 or higher, my counting out and
pegging out chances are based on all possible pone hand holdings,
and are accurate to to the first decimal place. Although most of my
fellow bots stink at this stage of the game, I say "bring it on".
Here's what I come up with. Note that Equity is based on a game
value of 2 (and a skunk value of 3, obviously irrelevant here):
| Card |
Equity |
Winning Chances |
| 2 |
1.93 |
96.7% |
| 6 |
1.94 |
96.8% |
| 7 |
1.94 |
96.8% |
| K |
1.88 |
94.1% |
Unsurprisingly, pairing the 2 greatly increases my
chances of pegging out, but lowers my overall chances of winning.
Somewhat surprising is how little this affects my real winning odds
(or equity). Although the humans, bless their hearts, focus on the
handful of pone hands where it actually matters what they play, in
my unemotional way I can see that the vast majority of the time it
won't really matter. Nevertheless, the humans are right to plunk
down a mid-card here, and as far as I can tell, it doesn't matter
statistically which mid-card it is.
Incidentally, I prefer holding enough points in hand and crib to
count out in case I have an unfavorable starter and peg only one
point. So I would have kept 7-J-Q-K, which restricts
my losing chances to those where pone can count out. Otherwise, my
opponent as dealer next hand may have pegging out chances if I blow
the cut here.
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Panelists
Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the
ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at
MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at
The Cribbage Bookstore.
John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of
Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.
DeLynn Colvert (1931–2019) is the highest rated tournament player in the history of organized cribbage. He was a five-time National Champion, author of
Play Winning Cribbage, and the ACC's only Life Master - Six Stars. He directs the Montana Championship and Montana Open, both held annually in Missoula, and served for many years as President of the ACC and longtime editor of the monthly magazine Cribbage World.
George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia,
Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the
ACC Web site.
Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.
Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.
Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.
HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the
HALSCRIB home page.
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