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Dan Barlow:

I don't mind giving away 8-9 to save something more promising than this, but with four points, and many cuts that don't improve my hand, I'll toss 8-Q.

John Chambers:

I usually take chances on the first hand that I normally wouldn't.

I would discard the 8-9. The cards that will help this hand are the A, 4, 5, 10, J, Q and K. Almost of the deck is tenth cards. The cards that will help this discard are the 7, 8, 9 and 10. If you do get an unfavorable cut which helps your opponent in the crib, there are over three streets to make it up.

DeLynn Colvert:

I would discard the 8-9, playing for max offense as the non-dealer to pick up my seven loser points using my 26 Theory. I would lead the A, as a ten-card is the most common response to an A lead.

George Rasmussen:

Although pure board position strategy indicates playing offensively on opening hand of game as non-dealer, I cannot discard 8-9 to opponent crib to play A-4-J-Q for four points. Discard 8-Q with an average of 4.3 to opponent crib. Though 9-Q has a lower average of 4.12, your potential hand is enhanced by holding the 9-J combination. The averages for these discards are based on empirical data.

Michael Schell:

The old-school thinking for first pone is to play aggressively from the get-go. But as I've pointed out before, at 0-0* you start out -8 to dealer's +8, which means that your positional deficit is exactly the same as your opponent's positional surplus. Until you have a look at your first six cards, there's no more reason to play exceptionally aggressively than there is to play exceptionally defensively.

This hand is a case in point. You could play aggressively and toss 8-9, which leaves you with only four pat points, with a chance at 11 points at most including the right J. You might also get lucky and catch dealer holding 5s and ten-card, in which case you might peg as many as six points:

⁴  _Q  ^A (15-2)  _{J?  5 (30-1)}    ^J  ₁₀  ^Q (30-4)

Nevertheless, this scenario seems pretty optimistic to me. I don't consider myself a favorite to score more than ten points total, an average haul for pone, by trying to play aggressively here. And if I don't exceed ten points, I haven't improved my front-end board position (my possibilities of winning by making up my initial -8 as opposed to eroding dealer's initial +8).

On the other hand, if I toss 8-Q instead, I'm making an excellent defensive discard while retaining a pretty good defensive pegging hand. I have a better than average chance of holding dealer short of 16 total points. If I do that, I'll be chipping away at his initial +8. I'm keeping two points, and should get a few more between the cut and pegging — enough to take advantage of the situation if my opponent falters. I think the odds favor playing off here with A-4-9-J.

Phyllis Schmidt:

Toss 8-Q, Keeping four points is not enough to warrant throwing the dangerous 8-9 to the opponent.

Peter Setian:

With legitimate arguments for a few different discards, I'd probably go with 8-Q. I don't think the hand has enough potential count/cuts to aggressively discard 8-9. (2-3-J-Q is a different story).

HALSCRIB:

There are two choices worth considering: A-4-J-Q and A-4-9-J. The former gives me about ½% more in winning chances at the cost of about ½% in losing chances. I will go for the points and toss 8-9.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

DeLynn Colvert (1931–2019) is the highest rated tournament player in the history of organized cribbage. He was a five-time National Champion, author of Play Winning Cribbage, and the ACC's only Life Master - Six Stars. He directs the Montana Championship and Montana Open, both held annually in Missoula, and served for many years as President of the ACC and longtime editor of the monthly magazine Cribbage World.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.