The score is 114-117*, and you're dealt 4 6 7 8 10 Q. What do you keep?

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Dan Barlow:

The 4 is my best opening lead, but to keep it means I sacrifice a point compared with keeping the flush. But what about after the cut? If I keep the flush I'll have enough to go out unless I cut an off-suit A, 2, 3, 4 or K (14 cards). If I keep 4-6-7-8 I'll have enough to go out unless I cut a 10, J, Q or K (also 14 cards). Cutting a J is additionally bad because it leaves dealer needing to peg only two holes. The fact that I'd like to lead the 4 must be weighed against the fact that on a bad cut, I'll have to peg one extra hole if I hold 4-6-7-8. A close call, but because I'm a favorite to have enough points after the cut, I'm keeping 4-6-7-8.

John Chambers:

This situation isn't as obvious as it may appear. If you keep the flush, there are 32 possible cards which will give you at least seven points.  If you keep 4-6-7-8 there are also 32 possible cards which will give you at least seven points. So let's look at this situation a bit closer. If you keep the flush, what do you lead? Not a 7 or 8 — you would lose. A tenth card? If he pairs or 15s, he has only two more holes to get. But whichever hand you keep, there are risks. I would keep the 4-6-7-8 and lead the 4.

DeLynn Colvert:

I just had the 4-6-7-8 hand in Reno, led the 4, and was destroyed. So I would keep the heart flush, lead the 7, and escape with the 10 if the 7 is paired.

George Rasmussen:

I need seven points to win. This is a tough call. My preference is to hold 4-6-7-8 as the combined value of hand score and pegs, less the crib score, is greater. With the preferred choice there are 32 cards (A-A-A-A, 2-2-2-2, 3-3-3-3, 4-4-4, 5-5-5-5, 6-6-6, 7-7-7, 8-8-8 and 9-9-9-9) that would benefit the hand by two points or more. With 7 8 10 Q, there are also 32 cards that add one point or more (A, 2, 3, 4, 5-5-5-5, 6-6-6, 7-7-7, 8-8-8, 9-9-9-9, 10-10-10, J-J-J-J, Q-Q-Q and K). If the cut misses the hand, as it could with 12-14 cards that do not help, I believe I have a better chance to peg the two points with 4-6-7-8. I guess a personal bias has caused me to retain 4-6-7-8 in preference to 7 8 10 Q.

Michael Schell:

Some obvious facts:

• Either keep gets enough to go out on 32 cuts
• 7 8 10 Q gets me one point closer if I flunk the cut
• Like most flushes, 7 8 10 Q is an "unpredictable" pegging hand, though the benefit from this is usually on offense, and it's more likely that I'll need defense here
• Speaking of defense, 4-6-7-8 gives me a safe lead in the 4. The flush has no good defensive lead

I'm guessing that with dealer starting at 117*, a safe 4 lead is worth one pat point. So let's proceed to some not-so-obvious facts:

• A J is one of my "winning" cuts with 7 8 10 Q, but not with 4-6-7-8
• If I cut a J, I'm probably screwed anyway, since dealer will only need two pegs to win

Thus 4-6-7-8 has the most legitimate cuts for 7+ points, so that's my choice. I'm planning to lead the 4 regardless of the cut.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I can see no reason not to keep the heart flush, holding one more point.

Peter Setian:

I certainly don't want to get stuck in a pegging duel. I would say the odds are better to keep the flush and lead the Q (not the 10). If the dealer plays a 5 for 15-2, then play the 8 and hope the dealer must play two cards for a go. If a count higher than 15 is made, I'd try to make the count 26.

HALSCRIB:

Some background for the geeks: in end-games where I am at 111+ as pone (win zone), I compute my expected hand and peg values, and ignore discards. In addition, I use lookup tables for the probability of dealer pegging out when dealer is at 115+ (out zone):

Keep	Toss		Average  hand:		Pegging			Dealer % peg out
					Net	(pone/dealer)
4-6-7-8	10-Q		6.39		-1.28	(1.57/2.85)		36.2
7 8 10 Q	4-6		6.70		-1.41	(1.70/3.11)		42.4

Although the flush increases dealer's chances of pegging out by about 5%, in my opinion getting one point closer to home matters more.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

DeLynn Colvert (1931–2019) is the highest rated tournament player in the history of organized cribbage. He was a five-time National Champion, author of Play Winning Cribbage, and the ACC's only Life Master - Six Stars. He directs the Montana Championship and Montana Open, both held annually in Missoula, and served for many years as President of the ACC and longtime editor of the monthly magazine Cribbage World.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.