You're pone at 110-94*. What do you toss from A 8 9 J J K?

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Dan Barlow:

If I knew the cut would be a 10, I'd keep 8-9-J-J. If I knew the cut would be from among a 5, 10 or Q, I'd save 9-J-J-K. What I do know, unfortunately, is that the cut will probably leave me with two or four points. So I'm playing defense. But that usually means leading a low card. Here I don't want to lead the ace and see a 10 come down when I'm holding 9-J-J. So I'll lead a J. Come to think of it, if I'm going to lead a J, I might as well save 8-9-J-J. I feel a 10 coming.

John Chambers:

Let me say up front that I would discard the A-9. You may ask, isn't the A-8 a better discard? Yes, in general it is. But this is a specific critical situation at the end of the game. You need 11 points and the dealer needs 27 points. Remember that between the play, hand and crib, the dealer averages 16 points. The only way your opponent can win from his position is to peg well, get a good hand and get a good crib. You have no control over his hand but you do have some control over his crib. In this case you want to minimize the points in his crib. If you threw the A-8 and a 6 is cut, the most in your hand would be four and you would have to peg well to go out. If you discard the A-9 and a 5 comes up, it may help his crib but it would help your hand and you need to peg only three holes.

DeLynn Colvert:

I'd toss the 9-K. Give this hand up to play defense, as any cut will surely leave you short. The A-9 is my second choice.

George Rasmussen:

Retain A-9-J-J and discard 8-K. Dealer is a hole or two short, and I hope to pick up a few points on this hand although the percentages for scoring 6+ points is not good. In this case the 9-K would be slightly lower in terms of crib average, but holding the 9 with the J-J offers a double run potential missing with the other toss. 8-K's average is .211 greater than 9-K at 3.940. Even so, my increased hand potential more than offsets this small difference on crib average.

Michael Schell:

Dealer is going in -2, and since 8-9-J-J represents my only chance at getting all the way out with my hand, with just two shots at the right 10 (and the wrong 10 getting me to the stinkhole), my first impression is that it's better to emphasize my "better" chances, meaning defense with 8-K or possibly 9-K. However, I try to apply a bit more rigor, at least when money or rating points are on the line, so let me explain how I might approach this troublesome decision if it came up over the board at the Grand National.

I'll assume that getting to the stinkhole is as good as a win with dealer this far back. Since any 10 cut to 8-9-J-J fits that bill, I'll say that this hold increases my front-end chances (those of winning the game on this deal, or else by pegging out next deal) by 9% (4/46). 8-9-J-J also gets me a shot at seven or eight points on a 7 cut, but so does a 10 cut to A-9-J-J, so that's a wash, but nevertheless I'll figure that this will win going forward ¾ of the time or 7% (3/46). So much for the front end. What about the back end, my chances of winning through defense (i.e., by counting out next deal after my opponent falls short)? Well A-K actually gives up only about .1 more than 8-K, though it has a .3 edge over 9-K. Having the A as an out card (or even a desperation low card lead) is worth perhaps ½ point defensively. So I'll give A-9-J-J about a ¾ point back-end edge over 8-9-J-J while A-8-J-J gets a one point edge. My rule of thumb is that when dealer is at the Fourth Street positional hole (96*), his chances of going out in three counts increase by 7% for each additional point he scores. I'll shade that down a little when he starts at 94*, but even the full point I'd save with A-8-J-J only adds about 6% to my back-end chances, whereas 8-9-J-J adds 9% to my front-end chances.

So despite first impressions, it looks like the aggressive A-K is the right toss, probably winning a couple more times in a hundred than one of the max-defense options.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I'll toss A-K. There's not much to work with, and it's tough to get into position to count out without some help from the cut or pegging. I would lead a J, keeping my 8-9 together, hoping to get a run on the last play.

Peter Setian:

I would toss A-8, and lead the 9, not bothered if the opponent plays a 6 for 15-2 (likely a small crib count). Furthermore, if I catch one of three cards for an 8‒9 point hand (5, 10 or Q), I may likely be able to peg one go, and then peg out on the next deal as dealer before my opponent counts their final hand.

HALSCRIB:

There are four choices that the humans may make, and I will provide the percentages:

Keep	Toss		Average  hand:		% this deal			% next deal
					Lose	Win		Lose	Win
A-8-J-J	9-K		3.74		1.0	1.8		26.0	71.8
A-9-J-J	8-K		4.26		1.1	5.2		25.0	72.6
8-9-J-J	A-K		4.35		1.4	11.6		25.2	72.4
9-J-J-K	A-8		4.43		1.7	8.7		26.5	70.8

If I foresee only one more deal, my objective is to maximize my hand when pone, so I will toss A-8. If my objective were to not lose on the next deal, then I would have tossed 8 K and risked the unlikely flush in crib.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

DeLynn Colvert (1931–2019) is the highest rated tournament player in the history of organized cribbage. He was a five-time National Champion, author of Play Winning Cribbage, and the ACC's only Life Master - Six Stars. He directs the Montana Championship and Montana Open, both held annually in Missoula, and served for many years as President of the ACC and longtime editor of the monthly magazine Cribbage World.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.