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Dan Barlow:

If I try to win now by saving 6-7-7-8, I have a 20% chance of getting 20+ points — and those percentages are even lower if dealer is holding any of the cards I would need. How do those odds compare with the chances that giving dealer 5-J would be just what he needs to move 25 holes in two hands? I'll leave that to the bot. All I know is I don't feel comfortable when my opponent is dealing needing 25, but he often doesn't quite make it. If it were 23 or 27 it would be an easier decision. Here I'm keeping 5-6-7-7.

John Chambers:

You have two options in this hand. You can keep the 6-7-7-8 or 5-7-7-8. If you choose to keep the 6-7-7-8 you have a 20% chance of getting the cut and winning the game. If you keep 5-7-7-8 and play defensively you have around a 50% chance of winning. To put yourself in the best position to win, my advice is that if your opponent has 25 or more holes to go, keep 5-7-7-8 and if they have 24 or less to go, keep the 6-7-7-8.

DeLynn Colvert:

You only need 21 points to win. Opponent needs 25. You must play desperation defense here. Discard the 8-J, lead a 7 and pray.

George Rasmussen:

Retain 5-6-7-7 and discard 8-J. Dealer has minimum position. You can give dealer an average hand or even better, but cannot afford much in crib. 5-J has too great a potential in crib to chance at this point in the game.

Michael Schell:

I'll keep 5-6-7-7. At this score, cutting to 15 or 16 before the pegging is fine with me (though I'll regret an A or 2 cut).

Phyllis Schmidt:

I'll toss 8-J. A 7 is not a great lead, but I would do it anyway. I have another 7, plus I know where one 8 is. Hopefully after the first play I can play away and not get caught up in a run.

Peter Setian:

I would keep 5-6-7-7. With the dealer still needing a sizable 25 points, relying on a cut for 20 or more points in my hand is too risky. Furthermore, if I do get a cut for 15‒16 points, I can try to peg aggressively by leading a 7. Then, with expected "pegging room", I’ll still have a good chance of pegging out on the next deal (hopefully four points or less).

HALSCRIB:

In some of my previous incarnations I may have thrown 5-J, even suited, instead of 8-J (suited shown below). Now that I know better, I will keep the 5 in the double run. Playing defense, the following table of expected hand, crib and pegging values will show why. Note that the expected offensive pegging values are shown but not included in the decision calculation:

Keep	Toss		Average  hand:		Opponent's     crib:		Pegging: Net (pone/dealer)			Defensive Value
5-6-7-7	8-J		11.78		4.12		-1.56	(1.48/3.04)		4.62
6-7-7-8	5-J		14.87		7.97		-1.41	(1.22/2.63)		4.27

Click here for a guide to cribbage notation and symbols.

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

DeLynn Colvert (1931–2019) is the highest rated tournament player in the history of organized cribbage. He was a five-time National Champion, author of Play Winning Cribbage, and the ACC's only Life Master - Six Stars. He directs the Montana Championship and Montana Open, both held annually in Missoula, and served for many years as President of the ACC and longtime editor of the monthly magazine Cribbage World.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.