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Dan Barlow:

If pone is about to get four straight three-point hands, which never happens when I need it to, I have a chance to pull this out. There's also a chance of winning if I get a big hand and crib, followed by an even bigger hand. I think my best chance at both a good hand and a good crib is to keep A-5-9-9. The cuts that turn that into a dozen could work well with my 4-J crib toss, especially an A or a 5. No reason I can't get 16 next hand, but when you come right down to it, the chances of winning this game are bleak.

John Chambers:

You're not in good position and you will have to pull out all the stops. You not only need a good hand, but you also need to peg. Your opponent needs only a few holes to get into average position for his three counts. Your three counts start right now. What else do you have to think about?

• First, you need to think about what cut would give you the most points in your hand and crib
• Second, you need to think about your best pegging hand
• Third, what are the options for your hand and crib?

1. Keep A-5-9-9 and discard 4-J to your crib. You could possibly get a dozen in the hand and a dozen in the crib if an A is cut with 24 possible points, but it's not a great pegging hand
2. Keep 5-9-9-J and discard A-4 to your crib. You could possibly get 12 points in your hand and 12 points in your crib if a 10 is cut with a pegging hand that is not great
3. Keep A-4-5-J and discard the pair of 9s to your crib. You could get 10 in the hand and 20 in the crib if a 6 is cut with a fairly good pegging hand

I would go with option 3.

George Rasmussen:

Toss the 9-9. Two middle cards (except for 6-6 or 6-9) pulled from this hand allow the greatest combined values for pegs/hand/crib scores. Discard of the A-4 is a distant second choice.

Michael Schell:

Pone starts the deal +7. I'm -14 and staring at middling cards. I think the odds favor playing off. I'll keep 5-9-9-J for a little more comfortable defensive pegging than A-4-5-J or A-5-9-9. I reserve the right to change my strategy if the cut's a 10.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I toss 9-9. All combos give me six points, whether it's four in my hand and two in the crib or six in my hand. I'll take a chance with the two 9s in the crib.

Peter Setian:

I would toss A-4. With this unfavorable position, I have virtually no defensive play and need to get 39 points with three counts and pegging. I need to pick a "dream cut card" that will give me the best hand and crib possibility. So I'll choose a 10 cut for a 12 point hand and maybe 12 more in the crib. (Close second choice is to toss 9-9 and choose a 6 cut, keeping a little better pegging cards).

HALSCRIB:

I estimate that pone may peg count out two deals hence, so I will play defense to minimize the chance that pone will count out on the next deal. Here are the choices that I think the humans will consider. Since I'm playing defense, I'll ignore the expected offensive pegging values in making my decision:

Keep	Toss		Average  hand:		Own     crib:		Defensive (pone) pegging:		Defensive Value
A-4-5-J	9-9		7.37		5.01		-1.33		11.06
A-5-9-9	4-J		8.04		3.49		-2.98		9.55
5-9-9-J	A-4		6.59		5.34		-1.91		10.02

Based on the total evaluation my choice is to keep A-4-5-J.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.