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Dan Barlow:

I keep 2-5-6-8 regardless of pone's score. It lets me peg on anything except an A, 3 or 4. So does 2-5-8-9, but if pone leads a 4 I'll be playing my highest card. If I start with 2-5-6-8, I'll retain 5-6, giving me a possible chance to make a run that gets me out. Being left with 2-5-8 doesn't look as good for a run.

John Chambers:

As the dealer you only need two points to go out. You don't have to keep any points. Your opponent needs to peg eight points before you peg two.

Now you need to decide what to keep. How do you decide this? If your opponent has low cards you should keep the 2. If he has a tenth card you should keep the 5. If your opponent leads a 7 you have to keep the 8. So far we are keeping 2-5-8.

The remaining three cards are 6-9-Q. You don't need to keep the Q. If your opponent leads a 5 or a tenth card, you have the 5 to peg the two points you need.

Is there a difference between the 6 and 9? What cards haven't we taken into consideration? The only cards that would be a problem if lead by your opponent are A, 3 and 4. If an A is led, keep either the 6 or 9. If the lead is a 3 or 4, by keeping the 9 you have one more option of setting up your opponent or avoid a run situation. I would choose to keep the 9.

So I would keep 2-5-8-9. I would not keep the same hand in other positions.

George Rasmussen:

I will retain 2-5-8-9. Although 2-5-6-8 is about the same, the 2-5-8-9 increases my chances to score a run with the 8-9 in sequence. In situations where the game was not on the line, I would play 2-5-8-Q and discard 6-9 to my crib.

Michael Schell:

With pone needing eight points to go out, I'll play on as dealer if I'm within four holes of home. I'll keep 2-5-8 to cover a 2, 5, 7, 8 or x lead. Between the 6 and 9, I lean toward the 6. The 5-6 might get lucky enough to trap a 4 or 7, whereas 8-9 could trap a 7 or 10. But if pone has ten-cards (like a 10), I expect my 5 will likely prevail anyway. So it's 2-5-6-8 for me.

When I'm at 119* or 120* I almost always try to peg out, regardless of pone's score. With a 6-8 available to win on any mid-card lead, I can't think of a situation where I'd want to retain the Q as an out card. And if pone was within a couple pegs of home, I'd prefer the 6 to the 9 as a response to a 3 lead.

Phyllis Schmidt:

Regardless of how close pone is, I would keep 2-5-6-8. I need to match a card of opponent's, or keep two cards close together to get a run at the end.

Peter Setian:

I'd keep 2-5-6-8, simply for the most variety of getting two points on the lead card. I would probably keep the same four cards regardless of pone's score. Maybe I'd hold the 9 instead of the 6. But I'm keeping enough of a variety where I can hold the opponent from pegging, if I cannot peg two points myself.

HALSCRIB:

In an out zone position (where one or both players could peg out) my keep is based on the probability of either or both players pegging out, and subject to HAL counting out or over. These probabilities are stored in lookup tables. The following table presents the probabilities for pegging out with this hand at 119*-113. For comparison purposes, numbers for 119*-119 and 119*-120 are provided. They include the probability of a J starter.

Keep	Toss		119*-113			119*-119			119*-120
			% Win	% Loss		% Win	% Loss		% Win	% Loss
2-5-6-8	9-Q		94.4	0.0		89.6	5.2		85.2	14.0
2-5-8-9	6-Q		96.0	0.0		90.8	5.6		89.2	10.4
2-5-8-Q	6-9		95.2	0.0		85.2	8.0		82.0	17.6

In all cases, 2-5-8-9 wins a little more than the alternatives, so it's my choice regardless of pone's score when I'm at 119*.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.