PONE  (113): Opponent     3-3-?-?  play:    3  ?      crib:   ?-? 9-Q cut:  4           2-5-6-8       DEALER  (119*): You     Continuing the scenario from November: at 119*-113 you deal yourself 2-5-6-8-9-Q. Suppose you keep 2-5-6-8. Pone cuts a 4 and leads a 3. What's your play?

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Dan Barlow:

I'll play the 5. If pone pegs on that, I win. Pone suspects this is true, of course and won't peg — unless he has only four points, in which case he's desperate for holes and may gamble that I saved A-2-4-5, and try pegging with a 7.

John Chambers:

I would play the 8. With the cut it is less likely opponent has a 4.

George Rasmussen:

I would play the 6. Although it looks like a risky play, only a small percentage of hands that contain a 3 also contain the 6. A 6 played on a 3 lead is actually a defensive choice.

Michael Schell:

The leading candidates are the 5, which wins on an A, 2, 4, 5, 6 or 7 reply, and the 6, which wins on a A, 2, 4, 5, 7 or 8. Interesting that from a pure counting perspective, each candidate has exactly the same number of winners. I expect that 3-7 is a more common combo for pone than 3-6 since it combines with a 5 for a 15, whereas 3-6 combines only with another 6. On the other hand, playing the 5 gives me a winning reply to any of pone's scoring cards, whereas I wouldn't have a winner to pone's second 6 for 15-4. I guess I'll lean toward the 5 since pone's 3-6 combo seems more likely to be from a hand that's actually short, in which case giving up a 15-4 could be decisive.

If I was one point back, at 118*, I'd lean toward the 6, in case I get the first go, and want to save my 5 for pone's possible ten-card lead on the second play series. That's not a factor at 119*, since if I'm facing pone's lead on a second play series, I'm guaranteed to win, since I've already scored a go and will get a second point for last card.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I play the 5. Then I can win on pone's scoring cards.

Peter Setian:

On a 3 lead, I'd have to play the 5. The key is to be able to peg in response to any pegging by opponent (run, pair or 15 count).

HALSCRIB:

I would play the 5 because it wins were pone to pair, 15, or make a run on their next play. Here are my calculated probabilities for each card:

Play
	% Win	% Loss
2	67.1	19.2
5	85.9	2.8
6	76.5	7.5
8	76.8	9.6

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.