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Dan Barlow:

I keep 5-9-10-J. I don't like tossing 2-3, but a 14-hand would pretty much assure victory and improve skunk possibilities. Would it matter if skunks count? Unless I missed the news flash, skunks do count. I'd be more inclined to break up this hand if I were way behind rather than way ahead.

John Chambers:

I would keep the 5-9-10-J. In most situations it wouldn't matter what position you are in. If you want to skunk someone you need to "go for it". If things are going good, the worst that could happen is your opponent will get a good hand but only 4 in the crib. You will get to hole 92 or 93 as dealer. If things aren't going your way you will still get to hole 92 or 93 and your opponent still has a lot of ground to make up.

George Rasmussen:

I would retain 2-3-5-10 and toss 9-J. If skunks mattered (especially so if I needed a skunk win to qualify in a major tournament) I would toss 2-3, retain 5-9-10-J, hope for a starter card of 10 or J, and a crib score of four points or less.

Michael Schell:

Dealer starts the deal -2 while we're +25. Ignoring skunks, it's a classic choice between playing on with 5-9-10-J, hoping to shoot ahead to the next positional hole before our opponent can get there, or playing defense with 2-3-5-10 or 3-5-10-J, banking on our opponent's inability to make up that two hole positional deficit. Now the next positional hole is 11 points away at 96, and 5-9-10-J averages a little less than ten points (two more than a median hand), so there's better than a 50-50 chance of getting there if I hold aggressively. But in general I think it's better to play to your strength and away from your opponent's when facing this kind of dilemma, and since my opponent is already two holds short, I think a more defensive approach is warranted here. The nice thing about 2-3-5-10 or 3-5-10-J is that I'm still keeping open the option of pegging aggressively if I do get a favorable cut for 8+ points.

9-J only gives up ¼ point more in opponent's crib than 2-9, and 2-3-5-10 should fetch me about ½ point more than 3-5-10-J while retaining a magic five (2-3) for pegging. So I'll go for 2-3-5-10.

Throw skunks into the mix and I need to reckon my board position relative to the next positional hole, which makes me -1. My opponent's board position is reckoned from the skunk positional hole of 66 (30 points behind the corresponding normal positional hole), which makes him +2. Clearly I'm a slight underdog to get a skunk here, and I certainly wouldn't consider keeping 5-9-10-J in that situation, but would be even more certain about keeping 2-3-5-10.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I keep 5-9-10-J. 2-3 is a gutsy throw, but I feel I must keep the most points (seven). Keeping four points isn't going to do much for me at the 85 hole.

Peter Setian:

If skunks don't count, I would decide to toss 2-3, and play aggressive to try and get every possible point in this position, having no concern about the pone's crib.

If I needed a skunk, I'd definitely throw 9-J and go for one of the many cuts for a 7-8 point hand with no direct help to the 9-J.

HALSCRIB:

Here are my calculations on my odds of winning three deals hence:

Keep	Toss		Average  hand:		Opponent's   crib:		Pegging		%
							Net		Loss	Win	Skunk
2-3-5-10	9-J		7.22		4.81		-1.15		7.7	48.1	0.4
2-3-5-J	9-10		7.48		5.24		-1.13		9.2	49.3	0.3
3-5-10-J	2-9		6.78		4.48		-1.30		6.4	44.2	0.4
5-9-10-J	2-3		9.74		7.19		-1.43		11.9	59.0	0.2

The keep that maximizes my odds of a win also maximizes the odds of a loss. However, the 5-9-10-J keep is about 10% better than any of the alternatives at a cost of a 4% increase in the odds of a loss. Having said that, in this position I am playing optimal, so my choice would be to keep 2-3-5-10 and toss 9-J. The odds of a skunk are far too remote to risk the 2 3 toss.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.