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Dan Barlow:

I lead a 4. That leaves me three options on my next play. If I lead a 6 and dealer plays a 3 he could score 15-5. If I lead a 2 and dealer plays a 5 he could start a run that I won't enjoy.

John Chambers:

Unless it’s an exceptional situation, I would lead the 4. I like to lead from a pair. If he does pair, you can get 6 points from the third 4. This will give you position on First Street. What if he has the fourth 4? Then he gets 12 points and may or may not be ahead of you. At least you have position and he may still need a big hand to get position on second street. Later in the game, your opponent may remember that you led from a pair and may not take the chance of pairing you even when you don't have a pair.

George Rasmussen:

Nice to get the boost from that 3 starter card. Went from two to 12 points. I will try to peg a bit here by leading the 4, which is likely to draw a 7 or 9 as a response if available in dealer hand. In either case I would score a 15-2. A reckless dealer on the opening hand might even pair my 4, although I'm not counting on that. In addition, the lead of the 4 leaves me with 2-4-6 and a possible chance to trap a 3 or 5 in later play.

Michael Schell:

The cut guarantees me 12 points and makes offensive play look a lot more attractive than it did at the start. It'd be nice to peg a couple. Over the board, I'd probably lead a 4. But I wonder if leading the 2 is warranted, hoping to trap dealer with a 5/x hand:

^2!  ₅  ⁶  _x  ^{4  4 (31-4)}

Note that leading a 4 against that kind of hand will only get you one point:

⁴  _x  ⁴  _x  ^2 (30-1)    _x  ⁶  _5 (21-1)

Peter Setian:

I'd lead a 4, just in case the dealer is stuck with low cards and decides to pair me. Otherwise both the 2 or 4 lead require a response with a 7 or 9 to get points which I'm looking for.

REX:

Hey, nice cut. Like most of the humans, I'm leading a 4 here, since it pegs best on average. As one human pointed out, the 2 is a superior lead if you're looking for a "killer" peg (note that it prevails in my Bold calculation below). But after the cut I only expect to lose about 53% of the time on deal number 10, so I have plenty of deals to get good cards in the meantime. No need to play "fancy" just yet.

Play
		Pegging
		Net (pone/dealer)		Safe	Bold
2		-0.91	(1.59/2.50)	-3	4
4		-0.35	(2.07/2.42)	-3	3
6		-1.98	(1.33/3.11)	-3	3

Click here for a guide to cribbage notation and symbols.

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.