PONE  (113): Opponent     3-3-?-?  play:    3  6  3  ?      crib:   ?-? 9-Q cut:  4           2-5-6-8       DEALER  (119*): You     Continuing the scenario from November and December: at 119*-113 you deal yourself 2-5-6-8-9-Q. Suppose you keep 2-5-6-8. Pone cuts a 4 and leads a 3. You drop your 6, then pone plays another 3. What's your next play?

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Dan Barlow:

Again I'll play the 5. Of course I'd like to peg out, but if I don't, I still have a chance if opponent doesn't have eight points. If he has six points and a 4, he may feel the need to play the 4, allowing me to win with my 2.

John Chambers:

I would play the 8 and make the count 20.

George Rasmussen:

I will avoid the possibility of a run by playing the 8 for a count of 20.

Michael Schell:

Since I didn't pair pone's first 3, she knows her second one, making the count 12, is foolproof. It therefore doesn't rule out pone having a 9 or ten-card (that would have brought the count past 15).

Since saving the 5 for last is pointless, it's tempting to drop it now, since I'll win immediately on a run, and can probably get a go after pone's 5 or ten-card, whereas the 8 gives up a go to a ten-card. What's damn hard to see is that the only 3-3-x hand that I should defend against is 2-3-3-x. Everything else either leaves pone well short, or is statistically much less likely to have been kept (e.g., 3-3-5-x). Playing the 8 wins against 2-3-3-x because I'll lead the 5 on the second play series!

Phyllis Schmidt:

I play the 8, keeping the count under 21 and avoiding runs.

Peter Setian:

Keeping the same principle of being able to peg in response to any pegging by opponent, I'd play the 5 to make the count 17. If pone plays in the run, I still peg out with two gos. Seems no chance pone keeps an A with 3-3-5 when they need eight points.

HALSCRIB:

The 8 minimizes the probability of opponent counting out, and thereby maximizes my chances of winning. Here are my calculated probabilities for each card:

Play
	% Loss	% Pegout Win
2	40.2	59.2
5	10.7	71.7
8	5.5	45.6

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.